Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Strong sun and very warm temperatures produced numerous large avalanches in the last few days. Expect continued avalanche activity on Sunday. There is no precise way to predict exactly where, when, and how many will occur. The only way to reduce risk is to avoid traveling on and under steep slopes, cornices, and rocky terrain that could shed snow. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    We are going into the fourth day of temperatures well above freezing. Cornice falls, wet loose, wet slab, and glide avalanches are all likely. The peak of wet avalanche activity will vary across the forecast zone. Some locations have already seen widespread avalanche activity, while others are ready to produce plenty more. It’s impossible to predict where and when any of these will occur. The only remedy is to stay out of the way. 

    Stick to low-angle slopes with minimal exposure to steep terrain overhead.  Don't linger in gullies that connect to avalanche terrain above. Don't have lunch under glide cracks, sagging cornices or blocks of melting snow clinging to rock faces. There is little reason to recreate on steep slopes as the snow becomes even more sticky, gooey, and unsupportable. Travel conditions continue to deteriorate. It’s worth noting that small avalanches or cornice falls can trigger a much larger avalanche lower on the slope.

     

    (3/16/2024)

    Fresh slab and wet loose avalanches on the west side of Loomis Mountain at 4900'. The crown is visible, intersecting the sun-shadow line below a cliff, in the center of the photo.

    Photo: Irene Henninger

Avalanche Discussion

Given the current weather pattern, it's unlikely you would find a slab of dry snow in which to trigger an avalanche except for at the highest elevations. If you do make it to the alpine where cold snow still exists, lookout for pockets of wind slab in steep terrain, especially on slopes with consequences like cliffs or rocks in the runout below. Snow plumes were observed on the north side of Baker on Saturday morning. There is still some dry snow up high on shady aspects to drift onto leeward slopes.

With the number of large wet avalanches observed in the past few days, it’s getting tricky to say exactly when many of them occurred. Observers at the Baker BC and also Schriebers/Baker NRA reported additional natural and human-triggered avalanches on most aspects. One natural slab avalanche was noted as well. While many were small, some wet loose avalanches that initiated in steep, alpine terrain exceeded D2 in size. Glide cracks are opening up, and cornices are starting to sag. 

Saturday was another scorcher in the mountains, with most mid-elevation weather stations showing high temperatures in the upper 50s. Heather Meadows and Bellingham both reached 63F at 1 pm. Alpine winds kept some upper-elevation terrain slightly cooler. Expect minimal wind on Sunday. While clear skies overnight might allow for a shallow refreeze, don’t expect it to last long in most areas. 

The top 1-3' of snowpack is becoming saturated on all aspects. Layers of buried surface hoar can probably still be found in select locations, but with the rapid increase in temperatures, that problem has been merged with wet slabs until it starts to cool down a bit. When we get to that point, it will most likely no longer be a layer of concern.

If you're out in the snow, share your observations with us and your local backcountry community.

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