Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

You're most likely to trigger an avalanche in areas with stiff drifts or slabs near the snow surface. Loose snow avalanches are likely on very steep slopes that face the sun. While not likely, we can't rule out the chance of triggering a large, destructive slide on weak snow buried several feet deep.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    You could trigger wind slabs up to 3 feet thick in exposed terrain. The slabs will be larger and more widespread as you climb in elevation. In the craggy Sawtooth Mtns, you may also find dense pillows of spin-drifted snow on aprons below large cliff faces, chutes, and couloirs. Some of the wind slabs and wind-stiffened snow overlie crusts and crust + facet combinations; in these areas, avalanches could be easy to trigger and could break wider than expected. Small chunks of cornice that you break off or that fall naturally could trigger wind slabs on the slopes beneath them. 

    Fortunately, managing this problem is straightforward; avoiding wind-loaded slopes will significantly reduce the chances you find trouble. Watch for fresh cornices, dunes, rippled snow surfaces, and areas with stiffer snow surfaces. These are clues that the wind has been at work. Cracks shooting out in front of your skis or boards mean you've probably found a wind slab.

    (3/12/2024) This 18" thick wind slab broke near a ridge line in an area loaded by recent SW and W wind. Stanley Lake Ck, NE @ 8,500'.

     

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Wet loose avalanches may release on very steep, rocky, wind-sheltered terrain soaking in the sun. Expect these slides to run fast and far on stiff crusts. Pinwheels or herds of rollerballs on a slope indicate the snow surface is softening, and loose snow avalanches may soon follow.

    Most of these slides will be small and relatively harmless; however, large slopes, chutes, and couloirs could produce powerful slides that could easily catch, injure, or bury people. Don't underestimate the power of these slides. Be aware of the terrain above you and where an avalanche could carry you. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    It would take some bad luck, but triggering a large, destructive avalanche isn't completely off the table yet. These slides would fail on persistent weak layers (crusts, crusts and facets, or facets) in the middle or bottom of the snowpack. You're most likely to trigger one of these beasts in steep, rocky, wind-swept alpine terrain. Here, thin areas of the snowpack make it easier to trigger avalanches.

    Persistent Slab avalanches can release in surprising ways. You can trigger them from flat or low-angle terrain long distances away from steep slopes, and they can break far above you. They can break hundreds or thousands of feet wide. Before triggering an avalanche, you probably won't experience snowpack collapsing or other obvious signs of instability. 

    We expect to see wet slab avalanches as meltwater makes its way down to these weak layers. Read more in the Forecast Discussion below.

    (3/8/2024) This very large avalanche on McDonald Peak released in steep, heavily wind affected terrain. This avalanche stepped down to buried weak layers deeper in the snowpack, gouging to near the ground in places. Photo: Ben VandenBos

Avalanche Discussion

Today is the first day of an extended period of high pressure. Significant cloud cover and any chance for snow have moved far to our north, leaving blue skies, light or calm wind, and warming temperatures that peak early next week. In the coming days, wet avalanche concerns will progress from surficial sluffing to full-depth wet loose and wet slab avalanches. The exact progression and timing of these problems are hard to predict and will vary from drainage to drainage and zone to zone. Here are some problems to anticipate as the days heat up. 

This morning's temperatures are cold, but the mid-March sun packs a serious punch. On sunny slopes protected from the wind, expect to see loose snow avalanches (sluffs) involving snow that's fallen since this past weekend. More recent snow will make these avalanches more likely and larger in our northern and western mountains. Increasing temperatures will shift these sluffs from a mostly dry character to a wet character as a thicker layer of wet snow develops near the surface.

Unfortunately, even shaded slopes won't escape this heatwave. Valley highs will climb into the 40s F today and 50s F by the weekend. Dry snow will be increasingly hard to find as wet avalanche concerns wrap around the compass. 

As snow melts at the surface, water begins to penetrate the snowpack, eventually draining to the ground. This process can happen quickly in areas with a more uniform, weak, or shallow snowpack, but it can be slow in deeper, stronger snow or on slopes with thick crusts. Weak layers or crusts in the snowpack can impede the water's downward progress, causing the meltwater to pool and increasing the chance of releasing a wet slab avalanche. 

The onset of wet avalanche issues can be sudden, and determining which slopes will slide and when is nearly impossible. When faced with this uncertainty, the only way to reduce our risk is to increase our safety margins. You can limit exposure to these problems by sticking to cooler, shaded slopes where the upper snowpack remains dry. Start and end your day early to avoid the heat of the day, and don't linger beneath steep, rocky slopes baking in the sun.

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