Avalanche forecast

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Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

While unlikely, we can't rule out the chance of triggering a large, destructive slide on weak snow layers in the upper few feet of the snowpack. Human-triggered wet avalanches are possible anywhere you encounter wet, sloppy snow.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    The odds are low, but you could still trigger a large, destructive, Persistent Slab avalanche where the snow surface has remained dry. These slides would fail on persistent weak layers (crusts, crusts and facets, or facets) in the middle or bottom of the snowpack. You're most likely to trigger one of these avalanches in steep, rocky, heavily wind-affected terrain. Here, thin areas of the snowpack make avalanches easier to trigger.

    Persistent Slab avalanches can release in surprising ways. You can trigger them from flat or low-angle terrain long distances away from steep slopes, and they can break far above you. Before triggering an avalanche, you may not experience snowpack collapsing or other obvious signs of instability.

    ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION: Human-triggered wet avalanches are possible on steep slopes with soft and unsupportable snowpacks. Another weak overnight freeze means the supportable crusts you find this morning may turn to mush. As low elevation temperatures warm this afternoon or if a break in cloud cover allows a slope to receive direct sun, keep the possibility of wet avalanches in mind.

    (3/14/2024) This large avalanche was triggered on ascent as three people booted up the final 20' to the saddle at the top. No one was caught. The avalanche broke 2-4+ feet deep on faceted snow. Sawtooth Mtns, N @ 9,900'.

Avalanche Discussion

Today's small storm marks the transition away from days of high and dry weather. The storm will not bring new avalanche problems; rather, it will help slow the effects of the recent meltdown. Cooler mountain temperatures, cloud cover, and breezy wind will curb meltwater production at the surface. This is a step in the right direction, but we cannot rule out wet avalanches until the snowpack has drained or is solidly refrozen. Last night, many locations recorded their warmest overnight temperatures of the week. We'll need to see solid overnight freezes before we can put wet avalanche problems in the rearview. 

Regions covered