Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Near and above treeline have the most dangerous slopes where you'll find new snow that has fallen on a variety of different surfaces.  Below the new snow is a variety of persistent weak layers, that you could impact and trigger a persistent slab avalanche.  The most likely weak layer will be in the top 1 to 2 feet of the snowpack consisting of facets or faceted crusts.  Deeper down in the snowpack, depth hoar and faceted weak layers continue to linger in shallower snowpacks.  Avoid the margins of the slab or rock outcroppings as these are areas where you're more likely to impact weak layers. With the warming temperatures and our intense sun this time of year, we should see some small natural loose snow avalanches on steep solar aspects. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

     5 to 7 inches of new snow fell over the last 24 hours with generally light east winds that have now shifted to the west.  This new snow has fallen on top of crusts, facets, and firm hard hard-pressed surfaces at upper elevations from previous wind events and may not be bonding well to this old snow surface.  Watch for shooting cracks or snow that stiffens underfoot as these are indications you've found more of a slab.   In areas where slabs haven't formed, you could trigger a small loose snow sluff in steep terrain. With the sun popping out today, and temperatures warming we could see loose snow avalanches in steep terrain on solar aspects that have the sun on them.  Any avalanche triggered in the new snow would be small but have serious consequences in steep terrain.   

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The persistent slab problem is becoming more complex and migrating up in the snowpack.  Faceted crusts and buried near surface facets in the upper 1 to 2 feet of the snowpack have become more widespread and reactive over the last 10-day dry period. This will be the most likely weak layer that you'll impact and could produce a large avalanche that breaks widely across the slope.  A persistent slab avalanche on this layer may break well above you.  Watch for obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses.   

    Deeper down in the snowpack, depth hoar, and the early January drought facet layer continue to produce moderate to hard results in extended column tests where the snowpack is generally less than 1.5 m.  These layers will be more difficult to impact and trigger but if you did find the right slab/weak layer combination would produce a large avalanche failing on or near the ground.  Avoid likely trigger points on the margins of the slab and near rock outcroppings as these will be the areas you're more likely to impact deeper buried weak layers.  A probe pole can be a useful tool to identify snowpack depths on the slope you plan to play on. 

    Near-surface facets and faceted crusts that formed during the end of February and early March dry periods have become our new persistent weak layer of concern.  

    This snowpit on a NE aspect near treeline failed on 3 taps with full propagation. 

    (3/7/2024) Photo: Andy Bond

Avalanche Discussion

It's nice to see a much-needed return to winter with 5 to 7 inches of snow and 0.4" of snow water equivalent (SWE).  Unlike many of our previous storms this year, this system came in with light winds out of the east that have now shifted to the west. Winds are expected to remain light today, but even a little uptick in wind could drift the low-density snow into stiffer more cohesive slabs.  The new snow hasn't added enough weight or slab development to increase the avalanche danger, but it has added to the complexity of the avalanche problems today.   

Although winds, were predominately in the single digits during the storm we did have a couple of hours where they picked up into the teens overnight. it won't take much wind to drift the low-density snow into a soft slab on the surface.  This will most likely be near and above treeline on the leeward sides of ridges and cross-loaded terrain features.  East winds are not our typical wind direction and slopes may be loaded in atypical places.  This new snow fell on crusts on our solar aspects from the warm dry period before the storm, near-surface facets on northerly aspects near and above treeline, and firm hard-pressed surfaces at upper elevations from strong wind events in early January. In places where the new snow has not formed slabs, you could get loose snow sluffing in steep terrain that easily runs on the old snow interface.  With temperatures warming and the sun reappearing during the day, natural loose snow avalanches should be expected on steep solar aspects.

The weak layer that catches my eye and gives me pause is the buried near-surface facet or faceted crust that is in the upper 1 to 2 feet of the snowpack and is relatively widespread. This layer has been reactive in snowpits failing with easy force in extended column tests.  This will more than likely be the layer that you'll trigger an avalanche on today as it's still close enough to the surface and easy to impact.  This layer formed during the middle to end of February dry period and got buried by the Feb 27th storm. During the ten-day dry period before this latest storm, these weak layers continued to weaken and now are incredibly fragile. This layer is giving me pause before stepping out into steep terrain.  Take the time to dig a quick pit to identify if this layer is present before blindly committing to steep slope.   

Deeper down in the snowpack weak layers that have plagued us throughout the season, continue to remain present in the shallower snowpack  (<1.5m).  These layers have been failing with moderate to hard force in extended column tests and continue to produce short results in long PSTs. This latest storm, won't be enough to stress these weak layers, but if you found the right "sweet spot" where the snowpack is shallower you could release a large avalanche that could take with it most of the season's snowpack.  

Skiing and riding conditions should've really improved with this latest storm, and it will be tempting to want to go and chase powder in steep terrain, as we haven't had good skiing conditions in a while. Try to fight that temptation and evaluate snow and terrain carefully, thinking about the consequences if you were to trigger an avalanche. It's getting to be that time of year when cold powder quickly gets impacted by the higher sun angle and warming temps.  It's not a bad idea to pack some glob-stopper for when you transition from wet to dry snow.    

 

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