Avalanche forecast

Elkhorns

Wallowa Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

It remains possible to trigger lingering wind-drifted snow today along exposed ridgelines.  Avoid steep slopes directly below corniced ridgelines to avoid this type of avalanche.  As the sun shines between cloud breaks and the temperatures warm small wet avalanches may become more likely.   Avoid steep slopes where the snow is becoming wet and heavy.  

This forecast is sponsored by La Grande Sno-Drifters Snowmobile Club. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    1-2 feet of new snow has fallen in the Elkhorns and Southern Wallowas since Monday.  On Wednesday moderate to strong winds from the Southeast, South, and Southwest transported this snow onto leeward aspects along ridgelines and exposed terrain.  As the winds backed off, snowfall continued and buried these wind slabs, making clues of wind loading a bit less obvious.   Be suspicious of steep slopes near ridgelines on the north half of the compass, especially where they sit below corniced ridgelines.  

    Observers in the Western Wallowas and Elkhorns found 2-5" of new snow covering 8" thick wind slabs on terrain exposed to the wind.  Collapsing and whumphing was noted and was caused by wind stiffened snow failing just above the melt-freeze crust found about 18" from the surface.  Propagating results in Extended Column Tests were also noted at this layer.  

    Look for signs of wind-stiffened snow in your travels today such as cracking around your skis or machine and rippled, pillow-like features.  Find small unconsequential test slopes to ride or walk across to test the sensitivity of wind slabs.  Avoid areas that are wind-loaded in terrain greater than 30 degrees.  

    Wind-loaded slope below cornice. Photo: Caleb Merrill

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    We are in the swing of spring and when the sun shines between cloud breaks today, it has a strong influence on the new snow we've received since Monday.  Combined with warming temperatures throughout the day, it will warm the new surface snow and could create small wet loose avalanches this afternoon.  Look for signs of wet loose avalanches such as roller balls and pinwheels releasing naturally from rocky areas on solar aspects.  As the snow becomes wet and heavy under your skis or machine, move to lower-angle terrain or shadier aspects.  While you can expect these loose wet avalanches to stay small today, they can have quite a bit of force and could easily knock you off your feet and push you over cliffs or into a terrain trap such as a gully or bench.  

    (3/22/2024)

    Runnels in the snow from water draining from warm temperatures. 

    Photo: Caleb Merrill

Avalanche Discussion

The 1-2 feet of new snow that has fallen since Monday sits above a stout and supportive melt-freeze crust from the mid-month warmup.   Continue to monitor the new snow and its interaction with the melt-freeze crust.  Dig down to the crust and see if the new snow is consolidating into more of a cohesive slab.   If you can hold the new snow between your hands and take a bite out of it like a big ol cheeseburger, you've got a slab.  Step above the skin track and push the new snow downhill to see if it is sliding easily onto your skin track. You can also gain a lot of information about the reactivity of these slabs by riding across small test slopes that have little to no consequence.  Check out recent observations from the Elkhorns from the last few days here and here. 

While becoming increasingly unlikely, the off-chance of triggering a deeper and more destructive avalanche failing on buried persistent weak layers buried 3-4 feet deep around the 2/1 Rain Crust is not totally off the table.  To hedge your bets against this, avoid shallow snowpack areas, especially around rocky convex rollovers.  Remember what we said earlier in the season?  Don't trust a facet until it is swimming in the river.  We have just added over an inch of water weight to the snowpack.  Combined with the weight of the unlucky rider, this could be enough to tip the balance in shallow rocky locations. 

This is a low-likelihood/high-consequence scenario and should be treated with careful consideration.  Before committing to consequential avalanche terrain on the north half of the compass, do your homework to evaluate the snowpack structure.  These deeply buried persistent weak layers will not provide you with obvious clues such as the collapsing or whumphing of the snowpack.  The only way to have greater certainty of whether this problem exists is to dig down to the layer(s) of concern and conduct a snowpack test.  

Set yourself up for success to have a great day in the mountains by using a conservative mindset, making a travel plan with wide margins, and always utilizing safe travel techniques such as only exposing one rider on slopes at a time, keeping eyes on them, and regrouping in zones that limit your exposure.  

Cornices are big right now and the spring is when they start to become weaker.  They can break further back than you think.   Give Cornices a wide berth, and use clues along the ridgelines such as trees and rocks to make sure you have solid ground below you.  

If you are out in the mountains, add value to your avalanche forecast by submitting observations here.  

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