Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
No rating
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Highlights

A moderate storm will favor the southern and eastern Cascades.  Increasing snow and winds will build reactive slabs where you could trigger an avalanche in wind drifted snow on steep slopes below ridgelines. Steer around steep terrain if you observe active drifting or long cracks in wind stiffened snow. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    As the afternoon progresses, snowfall and winds will increase. This isn't a powerful storm, but the storm track favors our eastern mountains, and small wind slabs will quickly form on lee slopes below ridgelines. These slabs are likely to form over weak, faceted snow and slick crusts. So, despite being small, avalanches could be surprisingly reactive. 

    Look for active drifted along ridgelines, textured surfaces, cornice formations, and deep drifts to help you identify wind-loaded slopes. Natural avalanches and long shooting cracks are bullseye information that wind-drifted snow is unstable. You can also use small test slopes to assess new snow reactivity. If it slides easily or triggers a mini-avalanche, steer clear of steep slopes and features. Avalanches may be small, but with our low snowpack, there are many exposed obstacles to be dragged into, increasing the consequences of getting caught. 

    In sheltered terrain, new snow may slide easily on the old snow surface. So fast-running, dry loose avalanches could also be a concern in steep terrain. 

    (1/7/2024)

    Small test slopes are a great way to test for wind slab instabilities. Small slabs like this are a good indication to avoid steep wind-loaded terrain. 

    Photo: Joseph Labernik

Avalanche Discussion

This storm is moving in from the south, which is a favorable direction for easterly flow and snow in the eastern mountains. By the end of the day, the area could pick up over 5" of fresh snow. The storm will intensify throughout the day, with increasing snowfall rates and wind during the afternoon. 

Recent observations have been minimal in the East South. An NWAC forecaster out in the East Central zone on Tuesday found a poor bond with the 3/25 crust and weak, faceted snow on the surface on northerly terrain at upper elevations. With additional snowfall on Wednesday, this could become a perfect setup for widespread, but likely small, avalanches.  Over the weekend, at nearby White Pass, an NWAC forecaster reported roughly 6 inches of new snow on shaded aspects and triggered small pockets of wind slabs on these same aspects.  They reported variable, often breakable travel on E-S-W aspects.  Expect less recent snow in the East South, but you may find similar, softer riding conditions on northerlies, with variable travel on other aspects. 

The robust 3/25 crust is creating slick travel conditions, and while 5" of snow over the top will help a bit, conditions are still likely to be slick. So, consider bringing traction and self-arrest tools, especially in steeper terrain. It's also worth giving yourself some extra time to access and exit the mountains.

Last week’s warm spell decimated the already struggling East South snowpack. Below 5,000 ft, snow coverage is too limited for avalanche danger at this time—so we’re issuing a No Rating for lower elevations. You can still find rideable snow at middle and upper elevations. 

Are you heading out? We could use the observations in this zone. Let us know what you see by submitting an observation here or on the AvyApp.

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