Avalanche forecast

Seeley Lake

West Central Montana Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

The snowpack is well bonded and stable. Outside of isolated pockets of wind slab, it is unlikely to trigger an avalanche today. Take care in upper elevation wind loaded terrain where you could trigger small wind slabs in steep start zones and on the edges of cross loaded gullies. While not a problem in benign terrain, these wind slabs could push skiers and riders into and over terrain traps if triggered in the wrong spot. 

 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Westerly winds were strong and transporting snow yesterday. Upper elevations, below ridgeline, is the most likely place to find wind slab. However, some areas saw swirling winds that deposited snow on multiple aspects. Cross loading on gullies was taking place. Despite widespread transport, wind slab was not reactive in all areas.

    It will take some investigation to determine if the wind slab has bonded in the area you are touring, but start with the assumption that it hasn’t. Always approach wind-loaded slopes with suspicion. Test small, safe, representative slopes for reactivity before stepping up to bigger terrain. Any shooting cracks or movement of small slabs and chunks is a warning sign that wind slab exists.

Avalanche Discussion

The weather has remained consistent for the past 48 hours; cold nights, clear skies, inversions, and warm days. The high reached 28º yesterday on Stuart according to the SNOTEL data; however, temps felt cooler, and snow surfaces stayed dryer than anticipated. Winds reached 35 mph at Point Six, and considerable snow was transported at the uppermost ridges and peaks.

Today, conditions are similar with slightly warmer temperatures forecast; up to 40º above 6000’  in the central Bitterroot with other portions of the forecast area being cooler. Winds are light out of the southwest with strong gusts. 

Stability remains very good. We found no signs of instability at Lolo Pass or in the Rattlesnake yesterday. Reports from other parts of the forecast area indicate similar stability. Isolated pockets of instability could be present, especially at upper elevations where pockets of wind slab could exist.  

Above 7400’ on shaded aspects in the southern Bitterroots, there is an outside chance you could trigger an avalanche on deeply buried facets. This layer is very stubborn and unlikely to avalanche. However, if it did, there would be high consequences. Steep convex slopes and shallow, windswept, rocky areas on upper elevation north slopes in the southern Bitterroot are the most likely spot to trigger this. If you can push your pole down to soft hollow feeling snow or find facets where you dig, it’s best to back off.

Yesterday was the busiest day I’ve ever seen in the Rattlesnake backcountry. There were people everywhere, and they were skiing everything. It was a good day for it with beautiful weather and very good stability. I suspect today will be even busier with the weekend upon us, not just in the Rattlesnake but throughout the forecast area. Any time there is an increase in the number of people, there is also an increase in the likelihood of an accident. In addition, increased numbers of people can mean increased pressure to get to the good lines and fresh snow before others. Perceived competition and pressure from other parties can cause us to have poor decision-making and take risks we may not normally take.

Keep this in mind as you travel today, make appropriately conservative decisions, and watch for others above and below you. Other hazards exist despite the good stability, and avalanches can still happen. Stepping into steeper, more committing terrain increases the consequences of any avalanche; even small ones may be enough to push you over cliffs or into terrain traps. Continue to practice safe travel techniques, such as skiing one at a time, and watch for red flags.

We’d love to know what you are finding in the backcountry, even if the conditions are stable and the skiing is great. You can submit observations here. 

Ski and ride safe.

 

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