Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

A stormy, unsettled weather pattern begins Saturday night and continues through the upcoming week. Avalanche conditions will worsen Sunday as new snow problems develop at upper elevations. Monitor changing conditions throughout the day, and steer around consequential slopes where you find fresh wind-loading.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    A frontal system will bring 2-5in of new snow and strong winds to the East South over the next 24 hours. New and wind-loaded snow will fall on a variety of old snow surfaces and may not bond well initially. Conditions will be most dangerous in the alpine where you could trigger an avalanche up to 1ft thick in wind-loaded terrain 35 degrees and steeper. Pay attention to changes in snow surface texture and hardness with aspect and elevation. Look and feel for blowing snow, sharp drifts, and hollow-sounding snow. Be leery of slopes below cornices, large cliff bands, and cross-loaded gullies. Reduce your risk by seeking out lower angled terrain sheltered from the wind.

    Example photo of blowing snow and fresh wind loading.

Avalanche Discussion

Expect stormy conditions Sunday with steady precipitation and a warming trend. A fresh crop of wind slabs could be increasingly reactive to human traffic as they thicken throughout the day. An atmospheric river looks to impact the region Sunday night into Monday. Snow levels should climb up into the alpine. Precipitation amounts are still uncertain, but it looks to be a wet and wild storm with dangerous avalanche conditions developing overnight Sunday.

NWAC forecasters on Manastash Ridge Thursday and near Rimrock Lake (Hwy 12) Tuesday found only a dusting of snow at mid and lower elevations. These meager totals did very little to improve travel conditions. The prolonged dry and warm weather of January and February really took a toll on the snowpack. At lower elevations, much of the snow melted back to bare ground making access challenging in some parts of the zone. Similarly, shallow spots in the snowpack on more southerly slopes and near ridges shrunk exposing rocks, trees, and dirt. Fortunately, the snowpack increases dramatically as you ascend in elevation on more shaded terrain. It’s in these mid and upper elevations shaded areas that you might find weak layers within the snowpack. Numerous crusts and sugary facets have been observed at nearby Crystal Mt and White Pass. 

Regions covered