Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Wednesday should be another soggy day in the West South zone. Rainfall should be significant on the volcanoes, particularly in the southern half of the zone. Consider avoiding all avalanche terrain where an unpredictable wet slide could start, run, or stop.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Despite the recent rain and warm temperatures, not every slope or rocky ledge has shed over the past week. Moderate rain may reinvigorate avalanche activity on Wednesday. This is especially true on the volcanoes where higher water numbers are expected. Keep an eye out for sagging cornices, glide cracks, or precariously perched blocks of snow to help identify areas where shedding avalanches could occur. If you find a steep slope over 35 degrees that didn’t avalanche over the weekend, consider it suspect on Wednesday and avoid it.

    (1/28/2024)

    Natural wet slab avalanches in the Crystal Mountain backcountry that occurred mid-morning on 1/28. 

    [N 6350' WS-N-R2-D2-U]

    Photo: Crystal Mountain Pro Patrol

Avalanche Discussion

Roughly 2-4 inches of rain has fallen around the West South since Friday afternoon due to an atmospheric river. Throughout the entire period, temperatures have remained above freezing. This resulted in a significant wet avalanche cycle. NWAC forecasters and avalanche professionals documented slides up to size D3. Many of these slides are suspected to have failed or stepped down to our deeper layers of concern, particularly the Solstice Crust. We expect the height of natural avalanche activity to have passed and the snowpack to be well-suited to absorb additional rain. However, this period of unpredictable wet avalanches won’t truly be over until temperatures drop and the surface starts to freeze. 

If you are traveling to the southern volcanoes, expect significant rainfall and windy conditions. If you’re heading to Mount Adams, you may want to consider reading the East South forecast. At the highest elevations, we may get some snow out of this event as freezing levels drop. It likely won’t be enough to pose much of an avalanche hazard, but keep an eye out for pockets of wind-drifted snow breaking over a firm crust. They could knock you off your feet and send you for a long ride.

At most elevations, heavy wet snow, runneled surfaces, running water, exposed rocks/dirt, and avalanche debris now litter the landscape, possibly making for challenging travel conditions.

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