Avalanche forecast

Tetons

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist. Human triggered avalanches are likely in steep terrain on many aspects and elevations. Remotely triggering an avalanche is possible from above, below or next to a slope. Use cautious route finding around steep terrain and watch out for terrain traps.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–3

    Weak snow from December is widespread and located 2-4 feet down at mid and upper elevations and 1-2 feet down at lower elevations. Avalanches have been triggered on all aspects and elevations and the possibility of remotely triggering a large hard slab avalanche continues to exist. Recent loading and warm temperatures have caused significant slab settlement.  As we get further out from the last loading event and the snowpack begins to adjust, it will become harder to trigger avalanches but the consequence of a large avalanche remains high. Obvious warning signs might not be present until you trigger the avalanche and tracks on the slope might lure you in. Continue to maintain wide safety margins in the current conditions by choosing to ride lower angle terrain, using cautious route finding and safe travel techniques.

    The low elevation hazard was reduced to moderate today. This does not mean that exiting the mountains is safer.  The weak layers are present, and collapsing continues.  This hazard rating reflects a slightly less sensistive snowpack, meaning it could be more difficutly to collapse a weak layer and trigger an avalanche. By definition during moderate danger, human triggered avalanches are possible and they can still be large. Continue to give steep low elevation slopes room, particularly deep shady aspects that hold older weak snow. Terrain traps and gullies remain suspect and keep an eye on pockets of avalanche terrain that could carry you through conseqential terrain.

    (1/20/2024) A large, wide propagating persistent slab avalanche that occurred south of JHMR.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3.5

    This weak layer is located 3-6 feet below the surface at the base of the snowpack and is more likely to be found on northerly aspects at mid and upper elevations where old November snow lingered before being buried in December. It remains on the problem list because it is still in the snowpack even though we have not seen recent activity on this weak layer. Avalanches that step down to this layer could be very large and destructive. Increased loading and warming temps could increase the chance of seeing one of these events.

    A low elevation snowpack sample showing weak facets at the base and the propensity to propagate under load.

    (1/22/2024) Photo: Michael Wachs

Avalanche Discussion

Natural avalanche activity and obvious instability clues like collapsing, cracking and recent loading of the snowpack have slowly started to taper allowing the snowpack a chance to begin adjusting. However, if we dig a little deeper (so to speak), we find a widespread and well-preserved persistent weak layer in many locations that shows propagation in pit tests. We are still likely to trigger avalanches in steep terrain and this widespread weak layer can produce very large and destructive avalanches. As a result, our risk management hasn't changed much, and conditions still warrant conservative decision-making as we remain patient and allow for further snowpack adjustment.

Regions covered