Very dangerous avalanche conditions exist and present a real hazard to recreational users of the backcountry. Human triggered and naturally released avalanches are very likely. Well-developed persistent weak layers are present in the snowpack. These buried weak layers are variable in their distribution with respect to aspect, elevation and extent of development in specific avalanche paths. New snow and wind is increasing the load on those weak layers and increasing the hazard. Slope specific assessment of the hazard is complex if not an impossible task. Do not overestimate your expert ability to assess the stability of the snowpack on a terrain specific basis. The additional snow will increase the size of this storm’s avalanche events and therefor increase the consequences of being caught. During the previous two days numerous human and naturally released avalanches have occurred in avalanche starting zones that range in elevation from 7,500 to 11,400 feet. Starting zones in the 7,500 to 9,500 foot elevations have been especially active. TRAVEL IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN IS NOT RECOMMENDED DURING PERIODS OF HIGH HAZARD.
Slab avalanches formed by west-southwest winds are very likely to be human triggered or release naturally on a variety of aspects above an elevation of 7,500 and can flow down into the lower elevations. These slabs are expected to be two to four feet deep at the upper elevations and one to two feet deep below an elevation of 8,000 feet.
The ongoing snow event will continue into the evening before tapering off to light snow or flurries on Tuesday. Two to four inches of additional snow are likely in favored areas. Temperatures will remain in the single digits and teens in the mountains. Winds will be westerly and gradually decrease to 15 to 20 miles per hour with some higher gusts. Avalanche conditions will continue to be dangerous in the mountains. The new snow and wind have increased the load on a snowpack that has buried layers of weak, faceted snow. Human triggered slab avalanches are likely on steep slopes and natural avalanches are possible. These slabs could be two to four feet deep above an elevation of 8,000 feet and one to two feet deep at an elevation of 7,000 to 8,000 feet. The general avalanche hazard is expected to be CONSIDERABLE. Expert snowpack evaluation, terrain analyses skills and a cautious approach to terrain choices will be essential for safe travel in avalanche terrain.
