Avalanche forecast

West Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Dangerous wet avalanches will creep higher and continue for the next few days as conditions change. If you're in areas with soft, wet snow, then stay away from steep slopes, and consider also avoiding gullies and slopes beneath large avalanche paths as well, even at lower elevations. If you make it to upper elevations, you could still trigger an avalanche in the dryer storm snow on steep slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Temperatures will climb all day, and large, scary wet avalanches will continue to creep higher, into the upper elevation band. Weather and the snowpack are fickle right now, and there is uncertainty about how spicy wet avalanche conditions will be on Tuesday. 

    Sky cover will predominantly remain cloudy. This means wet avalanche activity will occur on all aspects. If skies clear, which we don't think will happen until Wednesday, wet avalanches may be more focused on south-facing slopes.  Don't plan on any freezes happening until skies clear, so soggy snow and wet avalanche activity will persist. Avalanches could grow deeper, reaching the solid crust, fanning out extensively, and snaking down along gullies and open slopes. 

    This is a good day to stick to lower-angle terrain. If you see signs of recent avalanches, also steer around or travel quickly through the runouts of large paths. Although avalanche danger is generally Low at lower elevations, it's not ideal to linger in gullies and beneath large slopes that connect to larger snowfields and avalanche paths in the mid or upper elevation band that hold more snow. 

    Example photo: Large and destructive wet loose avalanches can happen without warning on Tuesday. 

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    A multi-day storm ended Monday night, and dry snow may linger for one more day at upper elevations. In higher terrain—where the surface snow is still dry or only lightly wet—you could trigger a slab avalanche.

    Feel for heavier snow over lighter, drier snow. Do quick hand pits to check bonding in layers closer to the surface. and look for recent avalanches or other red flags like long, shooting cracks. If you see upside-down snow or other warning signs, avoid steep slopes. Expect avalanches to be larger and more reactive in wind-loaded areas. 

    Example photo: You could trigger large slab avalanches like this on Tuesday. 

Avalanche Discussion

A long dry stretch ended Jan 28, and since then, weather stations around the zone picked up about 5 inches of water.  Snowlines bounced between 4,000 and 6,000 ft, switching between rain and snow. Upper elevations now hold several feet of snow over a crust, while lower elevations very little or no new snow.

Recent observations in nearby zones are mainly limited to small wet loose avalanches in both the West North zone and Stevens Pass zones. A cornice fall resulted in a large wet loose avalanche in the West North zone as well. In general, conditions have been changing a lot, shifting from wet to dry and back to wet again. 

Dry snow will mostly disappear by Tuesday as high pressure returns and temperatures rise above 10,000 ft by later in the week. Expect plenty of wet avalanche potential in the next couple days, especially at upper elevations with deep new snow that hasn't yet gotten wet. Conditions remain uncertain, so assess conditions for yourself and travel cautiously.

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