Avalanche forecast

Selkirk Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Strong southwest winds have been at work for multiple days, building stiff slabs that can fail under the weight of a person or machine. Poor snowpack structure is found on the majority of slopes, and these freshly drifted slabs today are adding weight and stress to weak layers now buried 2 to 4 feet deep. You can reduce your chances of being caught in a large dangerous slide by traveling in wind-sheltered terrain that is far away from and off of slopes steeper than about 30 degrees.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Strong southwest winds have drifted snow into deeper and more sensitive slabs on leeward aspects. Expect to find pockets of wind deposited snow at both middle and upper elevations, and near ridgetops. Multiple days with strong winds may have deposited snow further down slopes below ridgelines than usual. Gusty winds have also been strong enough to cross load and transport snow into terrain features such as gullies or convexities, regardless of slope aspect. If you encounter signs of instability such as shooting cracks or collapsing, steer around and away from steep slopes. Exercise caution and careful route finding when traveling near, above, or below wind affected terrain.

    Strong gusty winds are depositing snow and building deep drifts even on this low angle ridgeline.  West Cabinet Mountains, February 26, 2026. 

    Photo: Micah Krmpotich

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Slab depths over pesky persistent weak layers are now 2 to 4 feet deep. This means, avalanches breaking in any one of our suspect weak layers below - multiple surface hoar layers or faceted crusts - are more than capable of producing an avalanche large enough to bury, injure, or kill a person. These dangerous slabs slowly formed during incremental snowfall in February and began firing off dozens of large dangerous avalanches in the middle of the month. This week’s light snow load has not provided the major gut punch to the snowpack needed to provoke a widespread natural cycle. Instead, the snowpack on many slopes has been pushed precariously toward the breaking point, waiting to be provoked by a person or machine.As the overlying slab has become thicker and more connected across terrain features, we observed an uptick in size for both natural and human-triggered avalanches. Clear warning signs like long-shooting cracks and audible collapses have become more scarce, making this problem difficult to detect without digging deep into the snowpack to sniff out the problem. Unstable results in snowpack tests, and more reports of recent natural avalanches continue to trickle into the observations inbox, ensuring that the weak layers are intact, alive, and well. Conservative terrain selection, wide margins of safety, and an avoidance mindset will help reduce your chances of being caught off guard by a large deadly avalanche.

    (2/22/2026)

    This avalanche was triggered by throwing a block of snow over the ridge onto the start zone. This speaks volumes to the fragile nature of the snowpack, and the sensitivity will only increase with new snow and strong winds.Credit: Essex Prescott.

Avalanche Discussion

Going into the weekend, the focus has shifted toward what the wind has been up to the last few days. Winds have been blowing strong out of the west and southwest since early Wednesday morning, and Friday is expected to be the apex of this prolonged windy period, with steady wind speeds near 20 to 30mph and max gusts up to 50mph. There has been a lot of dry snow at the surface available for these strong winds to drift into new sensitive slabs, which not only creates a fresh Wind Slab problem, but adds weight and stress to weak layers deeper in the snowpack. Coincidentally, the same slopes that are leeward to this week’s strong wind, have already been the most reactive when analyzing  the recent reports of avalanche activity; 26 of the 29 avalanches reported since February 14th, have occurred on slopes that face North, Northeast, and East.

It has been very difficult to find ways to safely enjoy the return of winter during the last few weeks. The middle of the month was emphasized by dozens of large human-triggered avalanches and even as we now seemingly migrate away from peak instability, reports of large natural avalanches and unstable results in snowpack tests continue keep us in a conservative mindset. After a relatively quiet week of very light snowfall, the snowpack has been on the road to recovery, but the persistent slab problem we are up against isn’t going to suddenly go away unfortunately. As time goes on, the chances of triggering a failure on one of multiple buried weak layers might decrease, but the resulting consequences will remain largely unchanged. This is probably not the most confidence-inspiring message to read this morning, but we are right there with you working on ways to navigate these problems safely while traveling in the mountains.

The avalanche danger this morning is rated as CONSIDERABLE (Level 3of5). It is often useful to remind ourselves of exactly what that means, so I’ll leave you with a few definitions of this danger rating to close this discussion.•    Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.•    Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making are essential.•    Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are likely to occur

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