Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Shallow wind slabs 6 to 12" deep formed by strong outflow winds yesterday are today's primary avalanche concern.  These are most likely to be reactive to a skier or snowmachiner above treeline, near ridges, convex rolls, and in steep gullies.  Additionally, weak snow still exists 2 to 6' deep in many places above 2,500'.  While triggering an avalanche on this deeper, buried weak layer is less likely, the consequences of a deep persistent slab are much higher.  Sticking to simple terrain and avoiding terrain traps will both be good ways to mitigate this avalanche problem.

Special Announcements: We are excited to roll out some changes to our Chugach State Park forecast product beginning this weekend. We will begin issuing a full avalanche forecast with a danger rating, avalanche problems, and a 24-hour outlook on Saturday mornings at 7 am.  We'll continue issuing a forecast one day per week (Saturday mornings) through the end of the season. We will test this for the remainder of the season and reassess in the spring. Thanks for bearing with us as we take this next step to continue to grow the program! 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Recent Avalanches: Two human-triggered avalanches occurred last Thursday in Raggedtop Bowl (get the details here and here). Several natural wind slab avalanches occurred last week from the outflow wind event. The last known avalanches failing on deeper weak layers occurred 12 days ago during a north wind event, similar to yesterday's outflow winds. 

    Judging by the weather stations, yesterday was a brutally cold day with temperatures dropping to -15 degrees F and NW outflow winds blowing in the teens mph at ridgetops.  It's days like this that I feel bad for the goats!  Much of the advisory area has taken on a moonscape appearance over the past week and a half, sculpted by winds, cold temps, and even some solar effects as we near March 1st.  Yesterday's outflow winds continued the trend, blowing any remaining soft snow into shallow wind slabs up to 1' deep.  Steep terrain near ridgelines, convex rolls, and gully features are likely areas to find shallow but reactive wind slabs today.  Areas without wind affect are few and far between right now, but if you can find soft surface snow, you can avoid today's wind slab problem.  

    At mid- and lower elevations, the avalanche danger is low but still warrants a 'normal caution' mindset.  These areas did see winds yesterday, and while unlikely, isolated terrain features between 1,000' and 2,500' could harbor shallow wind slabs.

    (2/23/2026)

    Soft surface snow still being found this week in some areas protected from the winds.  Goldpan, Turnagain Pass.

    Photo: Nathan Baird

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    It's been several weeks now since we last saw an avalanche on the deeper layer of faceted snow, now 2 to 6' deep on average, in Turnagain Pass.  Until we have another major loading event, it's unlikely that a person can trigger an avalanche on this deeper weak layer.  However, folks are still finding this poor structure in snowpits above 2,500'.  The common wisdom is to 'not trust a facet until it's in the river'.  This poor snowpack structure continues to be a factor in our decision-making while traveling in avalanche terrain.

    (2/23/2026)

    Poor structure at a thin spot at 3000' at the bottom of Goldpan.

    Photo: Andrew Schauer

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