Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Observers confirmed what weather stations were reporting yesterday: that it was windy. Although natural avalanches are not as likely today as they were yesterday, there are good chances a person could trigger an avalanche in windblown snow up to 2' deep above 2,500'.  The weak snow buried up to 4' deep in Summit Lake is more concerning than in other zones and there are still chances a person could trigger a large avalanche on on this layer above 2,500'. Choose low angle terrain below 2,500' to avoid these problems entirely.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Recent Avalanches: Observers reported some avalanches they thought could be natural wind slabs yesterday, but it is very difficult to tell if this is the case or if these are older avalanches with partially filled in crowns. One of these occurred on Tenderfoot and the others were seen on a northwest aspect of Butch (observed from across the valley on Colorado). 

    Wind speeds yesterday and overnight in this zone were sustained between 10 to 30 mph on the ridgelines from variable directions with a gust to 49 mph on the Summit Peak Ridge station. Variable wind direction occurred yesterday making wind slabs possible on any aspect in any area that has no vegetation for protection. Blowing snow was deposited in many places on the slopes making it possible to find a wind slab much lower on the slope than you would expect. Wind slabs sometimes look like "pillows" of snow. They may be smooth or have some texture, but they are always more stiff than the snow beneath. Shooting cracks are the "red flag" that tells us the snow needs some time to stabilize.

    Dry Loose Avalanches: In wind sheltered places there is plenty of cold snow that could be entrained on steep slopes in a dry loose avalanche or sluff. This type of avalanche isn't usually dangerous unless it takes you off your feet and into a tree or off of a cliff.

    (2/15/2026)

    Fairly consistent moderate to intense snow transport off of the Tenderfoot and Tri-Tip ridgeline.

    Photo: Andy Moderow

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    We want to write off the December facets and forget about this persistent slab problem ever existed, but we can't do that yet. This problem is so challenging to assess and to trust and we are still getting unstable test results. The good news is that the stability on this layer has been trending in the right direction for a month and a half. The bad news is we still think there are still chances a person could find a thin spot and trigger a very large avalanche. This problem exists in the same place as the wind slab today so both can be avoided by choosing terrain in the treeline elevation band or below.

    (2/15/2026)

    Snowpack structure from 2,000' on  Colorado on an east aspect. 

    Photo: AAS Rec 1

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