Avalanche forecast

East Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

On Friday, winds will shift back to the west and will be strong enough to transport snow. You can trigger avalanches at middle and upper elevations and some could be large and break widely across terrain. Watch for plumes of blowing snow and steer around steep slopes with freshly drifted slabs.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Watch for actively blowing snow, recent avalanches, and cracks shooting through the snow as indicators of the danger. You can also feel for stiff, recent drifts of snow. These are all signs to use caution and consider avoiding leeward slopes steeper than 35 degrees. Steer around convex features and drifted pillows. Don't stand on cornices and minimize your time under them.

    A shift to back to west wind for Friday is the latest of multiple wind shifts in the last week. Thursday was an active day of wind slab avalanches formed by strong easterly winds. It's critical to consider the potential for more widely propagating avalanches where wind-drifted snow overlaps with the distribution of more dangerous persistent slab conditions. See below.

    (2/9/2025)

    A small skier-triggered wind slab in the Cutthroat Drainage caught and carried a skier without injuries. 

    SE, 7100ft, SS-AS-R1-D1

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    As slabs have formed on a wider range of wind-exposed slopes, it may now be easier to trigger large persistent slab avalanches on northerly aspects. Use extra caution in steep rocky terrain where the snowpack is shallow and variable.  Signs of instability, like avalanches, whumpfing collapses, or shooting cracks, are bullseye signs to avoid steep slopes and keep more significant safety margins between you and large avalanche paths.

    You can find facets from the January Drought Layer 1-2ft below the snow surface. You may consider staying off of slopes over 35 degrees where you you find slabs of 4-finger hardness, or harder, over surgery, weak facets. Facets from early January and December, buried 2-3 feet deep under old stiff wind slabs, are more isolated. While these layers are less likely to be problematic, they've been the culprits in two close calls since February 1st. Digging snow pits and performing snowpack tests can help you identify these problematic weak layers.

    (2/7/2025)

    A natural avalanche that likely ran on the 4-5th. The wide propagation suggests that it could have ran on the January Drought Layer. 

    Photo: Katie Warren

Avalanche Discussion

Friday will be the beginning of a slow "warming trend" returning temperatures closer to normal. Expect a dusting of light snow overnight yielding to partial clearing by afternoon.

On February 13th, observers reported a large (size D2) natural avalanche resulting from a cornice fall. They also reported a skier-triggered hard wind slab avalanche. Both were at upper elevations on northerly aspects and may have involved the January Drought Layer. On Feb. 9th, an observer triggered a small wind slab on a crust and was caught and carried on a southeast aspect. Over the last 3 days, multiple human-triggered and natural wind slabs have been reported. While most of these avalanches have been relatively small, one was reported to have surprisingly wide propagation, indicative of a persistent slab. As backcountry users venture out into more remote areas of the zone, there are also growing reports of large and very large avalanches that occurred during the storm at the beginning of February. We suspect these avalanches failed on the weak, faceted January Drought Layer (JDL). 

NWAC forecasters, observers, and other professionals in the Highway 20, Washington Pass area have found substantial evidence of weak snowpack structure throughout the zone. The early February storm brought 1-2 feet of snow to the zone that fell on either the JDL persistent weak layer or wind-stiffened snow over the JDL. The JDL exists at lower elevations. However, it doesn't seem to be a current issue for triggering persistent slab avalanches since the overlying snow lacks cohesion or "slab" characteristics in many places. 

Less likely, but still a concern, are deeper layers of facets buried by older wind-drifted slabs during mid-December through mid-January. The distribution of this layering is more cryptic and complex but has been observed between 6,500-7,500ft in moderately wind-exposed terrain. An avalanche triggered on 2/1 near Cedar Creek/ Snagtooth Ridge is an example of where the mid-December facets were problematic. There are also slopes where you won't find the facets as they were melted or capped by a crust (high elevation rain event on Dec 7th) or blown away. 

You can help us gather more data by submitting an observation HERE or via the Avy App. 

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