Avalanche forecast

Togwotee Pass

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
No rating
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Highlights

Avalanche danger will increase throughout the day as warming temperatures and clear skies destabilizes recent snow on very steep slopes facing the sun. Warming temperatures could also stress buried weak layers where larger avalanches are possible to trigger on very steep, rocky, and wind affected slopes. Seek cooler, less consequential terrain to manage the uncertainty of warming temperatures on a poorly structured snowpack.

Avalanche problems

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Triggering an avalanche on buried weak layers where the overlying slab is 2-3 feet deep is possible on very steep slopes over 35° in the upper elevations. Warming temperatures and strong solar radiation could increase the potential of triggering a very large avalanche while the snowpack adjusts to changing conditions. Signs of instability such as cracking, collapsing, or recent avalanches may not be present before triggering a large, dangerous avalanche. Multiple tracks on a slope do not indicate stability with this problem type. Terrain that remains most suspect includes complex, very steep, rocky, and wind affected slopes where thin spots can impact the buried weak layers easier. 

    These persistent slab avalanches are capable of propagating widely across or up a slope. For this reason, it is not out of the question to trigger larger avalanches with slab depths 5+ feet as a result of hitting the thin, shallow spot of the slope. Heavily wind affected slopes are where these avalanches could break deeper, such as the very large persistent slab on Lava Mountain February 10.

    (3/1/2025)

    Large avalanche that failed on persistent weak layers 2-3 feet deep in complex terrain. 

    Photo: Dakota Richardson

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Clear skies and warm temperatures will destabilize around a foot of recent snow by the afternoon on steep slopes facing the sun. These avalanches will be capable of entraining large amounts of snow as recent snow lies above slick melt freeze crusts. Wet snow avalanches are more likely around rock features that heat up surrounding snow surfaces. Pay attention to snow surfaces transitioning from dry to wet snow as a sign that the snow is becoming unstable. Small wet loose avalanches and rollerballs are clear signs of increasing instability. 

    Wind slabs less than a foot deep could still be lingering in upper elevation terrain on steep, open and exposed slopes. Warming temperatures could make these stubborn wind slabs more reactive. Look for signs of wind loaded slopes such as shooting cracks, stiffened surfaces, or large pillows. Watch for slabs formed on less commonly loaded slopes from atypical north to east wind. 

Avalanche Discussion

You may notice that we combined the persistent slab problem into the deep persistent slab problem yesterday. The travel advice for both problems matched up with one another. Areas where the snowpack depth is variable is where triggering weak layers buried in the middle or bottom of the snowpack is most likely. Impacting any weak layer and triggering an avalanche is most likely where the overlying slab is 2-3 feet deep. Last week two avalanches were reported on Grouse and Mt Leidy that failed on basal facets near the ground. Warming temperatures add uncertainty in how these weak layers will adjust to the overlying slab. These weak layers are still reactive and require respect as the consequences of triggering avalanches failing on the ground is severe. 

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