The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on all aspects at the mid and upper elevations, with a MODERATE danger at low elevations. Avalanches may break down several feet deep and over a hundred feet wide.
Shallow, wet-loose avalanches on steep, southerly-facing slopes are possible once the sun comes out.
These are tricky and dangerous conditions that require careful and continual evaluation of the snowpack and terrain. You can enjoy excellent riding conditions by avoiding avalanche terrain.
You may find sensitive soft slabs and sluffing in the recent storm snow at all elevations. Also watch for pockets of wind-drifted snow at the upper elevations.
Although I expect today's cool temperatures and partly-cloudy skies will limit the warming of the snow surface, shallow avalanches involving wet-loose snow are possible on steep, sunny slopes.
We're just not used to this kind of persistent weak layer problem by late February. There are four distinct persistent weak layers - including solar (southerly-facing) slopes:
The "heat map" (shown below) of avalanche activity over the past two weeks tells the story with avalanches on almost all aspects and elevations:
If you choose to approach avalanche terrain you are going to have to continually evaluate the snowpack by pulling out your shovel and looking for weak layers in the snowpack. A widespread spatial variability complicates things, meaning the lack of a weak layer on one slope doesn't imply the lack of a weak layer on an adjacent slope. If you aren't confident in doing this necessary work of evaluating the snowpack, there is a easy solution: avoid avalanche terrain and enjoy the excellent riding conditions on low-angled slopes.
The Utah Avalanche Center is issuing a Special Avalanche Bulletin after a series of storms in the last week has left a thick blanket of snow at all elevations, creating excellent powder riding conditions while also elevating the backcountry avalanche danger. Don't let the fresh snow and sunshine influence your decision-making - avalanche conditions remain dangerous, and careful snowpack and terrain analysis are required for backcountry travel. Fortunately, there are great riding and travel conditions away from avalanche terrain on slopes less than 30° in steepness.
Help the University of Utah understand risk behavior in the backcountry by participating in a 15-minute survey. The U will compensate up to $30 for your time! Please note: responses will not be confidential but will be handled ethically under IRB guidelines.
No avalanches were reported from the backcountry on Thursday, but over 40 avalanches have been reported to the UAC in the past 7 days.
Be sure to read Nikki's Week in Review as you make your backcountry travel plans.
This Morning: Temperatures are in the teens, and winds are light - with overnight gusts in the 20's mph at the uppermost elevations. Skies are partly cloudy. In the past 24 hours, 5-10 inches of new snow has fallen, containing 0.5-0.75 inches of water.
Today: Partly cloudy skies with temperatures rising into the mid and upper 20's F. Winds will be from the north/northwest and remain light, gusting into the teens at the upper-most elevations.
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
