Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The avalanche hazard has risen to moderate today. Avalanches up to a foot deep involving wind-drifted new snow will be possible in specific areas. Continued snowfall throughout the day will increase the likelihood and distribution of human-triggered and natural avalanches. 

Public avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday- Sunday at 8 am

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    NNE winds throughout Thompson Pass and other alpine areas will be redistributing fresh storm snow into deeper and stiffer pockets on the leeward sides of terrain features. These wind-loaded areas could produce human-triggered avalanches a foot deep or more today.  Currently, avalanche activity is expected to be limited to these deeper areas but continued snowfall throughout the day into tomorrow will make the storm slab more widespread. Expect an increasing likelihood of avalanches throughout today into tomorrow.

    The snow totals from last night are 4 inches at Thompson Pass DOT and 6.5 inches in Valdez. Additional snowfall throughout the day will bring the totals closer to a foot, with the possibility of higher amounts in the mountains above the port.  New snow is falling on surfaces that are not conducive to good bonding. Most notably, there is a layer of surface hoar extending from sea level to about 3000 feet throughout our forecast area. In many areas in Thompson Pass this surface hoar is sitting on a hard windslab that could provide a slick bed surface for new snow to slide on. Underlying weak snow and slick bed surfaces may allow avalanches to release easily and run for long distances.

     

Avalanche Discussion

Observed Avalanche Activity last 72 hours: 

None

For information about the previous Deep slab avalanche cycle, click the avalanches tab below the bottom line statement once you have entered the full forecast for a partial documentation of activity.

Three Pigs natural avalanche information click link here.

Forecast Discussion:

Two weeks of high pressure has allowed the snowpack to settle and gain strength.  The snowpack has been consistently showing signs of good strength and structure in snowpits in multiple locations, elevations, and aspects.  Current and upcoming concerns within the snowpack will revolve around our fresh storm slab and its interaction with the old surfaces it falls on. Surface hoar, old wind slabs and faceted snow will be expected to provide the ingredients necessary for avalanches when loaded with storm snow. 

For this morning avalanche activity is expected to be limited to areas where the wind has redistributed snow into deeper slabs. This will expand to all avalanche terrain once we start to approach 8+ inches of accumulation. Snowfall totals, fresh snow depth and snow stiffness will be the primary indicators for avalanche hazard today. Slopes over 30 degrees where fresh snow becomes stiff or boot top deep should be considered hazardous today.  

There has not been any natural or human-triggered avalanche activity since the beginning of the month.  The deep slab avalanches that occurred in late January are now believed to be a dormant problem that will require a significant change in weather to reactivate.

 

 

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Additional Information:

A weather and snowpack season history is available by clicking on the Season Summary tab which is located below the bottom line statement once you have entered the full forecast.

Season Snowfall Data

Location 24 hour Snowfall Inches- 2/13 24 hour Snow Water Equivalent Inches Height of Snow February Snowfall Inches Season Total Snowfall Valdez    0    0    30     0      Thompson Pass    0    0   N/O    0    ~500 Nicks    0    0    143    0 N/O 46 Mile    0     0   22    0 N/O

Regions covered