Avalanche forecast

Presidential Range

Mount Washington Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

You could trigger an avalanche in newly formed areas of wind-drifted snow on steep north, east, and south-facing slopes at all elevations today. Natural avalanches are unlikely, but not impossible-especially early in the day. To reduce your risk, steer clear of slopes with obvious drifts and where the wind has stiffened and smoothed the snow surface.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    What and where is it: Approximately 4 inches of new snow, and older, loose snow is being transported by strong west winds to east-facing aspects, forming new wind slabs that could be 1-2 feet thick. Given the high wind speeds, the largest slabs are expected to be found on steep, middle-elevation slopes above 3000 feet. These freshly formed slabs may be reactive to human triggers, but with continued strong winds today and tonight, we anticipate increasing stability over time. 

    At lower elevations, particularly in steep, isolated terrain, triggering an avalanche in the newly drifted snow is possible. While the overall snowpack is shallow, the size of any avalanches is expected to be small, though they could be consequential in exposed, steep gullies

    Natural avalanches from incremental or rapid loading are becoming less likely, though don’t ignore the possibility of natural avalanche activity on large, smooth, easterly-facing slopes at middle elevations. 

    How can you recognize it: Look out for areas of areas of smooth, wind-stiffened snow on steep terrain. In wind protected locations they will be softer and more sensitive. Blowing snow may make observing these slabs challenging so pay attention to the depth and structure of the snow as you travel. Slabs with a strong-over-weak structure is a red flag. Other red flags include shooting cracks under your feet, blowing snow at the ridgelines, and deep drifts of softer snow.

    How can you manage it: Do your best to identify the new slabs, especially areas with deeper drifts and evaluate carefully, or steer around them. Using a ski pole to probe to understand structure and depth and informal tests like hand shears should help you to assess size, thickness and sensitivity. Continue to travel thoughtfully in avalanche terrain. If you're unsure about the sensitivity or location of wind slabs, consider taking an alternate route in simpler, low angle terrain.

Avalanche Discussion

For anyone brave enough to venture into avalanche terrain today, keep new windslabs on your radar. Any newly formed slabs may be trending stubborn due to high winds overnight, but given the recency and cold temperatures don’t underestimate sensitivity. Persistent SlabsThis morning, we removed Persistent Slabs as an avalanche problem. Field observations indicate that a persistent weak layer remains, particularly on east, southeast, and south aspects. However, the snow structure above these layers has strengthened, making the likelihood of triggering an avalanche on this layer very low, though not entirely impossible. The greatest chance of triggering this layer is at low elevations, but generally with much less consequence due to avalanche size from a shallow snowpack. 

OBSERVATIONS: Please consider submitting an observation on our website or in the new Avy phone app of what you are seeing in your travels. Submitting an observation hones your skills, informs other users, and improves our forecasts. *Thank you Vermont Observers! Check out the interesting snowpack to the west of the MWAC Forecast area here.

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