Avalanche forecast

West Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Even though it’s been a week since the last major storm, the snowpack basically hasn’t changed. Unfortunately, you won’t be able to say with any certainty which slopes are safe, and which are not. Even though it’s unlikely, all steep shaded slopes are suspect.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–2.5

    Other than a few photographs of a collection large crowns on the north side of Mt Pilchuck, we know very little about the current state of this problem in the West Central zone. Here’s what we do know. 

    • Weak snow facets, sometimes with a thin crust, were documented prior to the last storm. 
    • This snowpack structure is incredibly similar to other NWAC forecast zones. 
    • These weak layers should be most common on shaded aspects. 
    • There is no easy way to assess a slope’s stability. 
    • The further we get from the storm, the less likely an avalanche may become, but the consequences are the same. 

    You’re most likely to trigger an avalanche in areas where the snowpack is thinner such as near rocks, along convexities, or on unsupported supported slopes. These slides may need a bigger trigger like a group of people or a smaller avalanche to fail. The only way to totally manage this issue is avoidance. Fortunately, there's lots of soft snow out there on other slopes. 

    (2/9/2025)

    This slew of natural avalanches in the West Fork of Swift Creek/West North were reported on Sunday. The time of occurrence and weak layer are hard to pin down. Whatever the details, it's proof the layering is still out there to produce slab avalanches. North aspect at 5500'.

    Photo: Andrew Richardson

Avalanche Discussion

BRRRR! It’s going to very cold to start the day! Bundle up. Wind chill values could easily dip below 0F. The upside to the arctic temperatures is it’s keeping the snoe light and fluffy. 

While not a major issue, there are two other avalanche concerns to keep on your radar. In higher exposed terrain, you could find small pockets of wind drifted snow. Watch out for textured surfaces or wind lips that point toward firm pillow-like slabs. With all the unconsolidated snow, you could see small natural loose slides in very steep areas. You may even trigger one of these small sluffs. While neither issue poses a significant hazard, they could act as a trigger for a deeper persistent slab avalanche. 

Below the recent snow, two potential weak layers exist. Weak sugary faces often with a thin crust formed during the long January Drought (JDL). Just below, you will also find facets above and below a slightly thicker crust from 1/10. Warm sunny weather generally destroyed these layers on southerly aspects and instead left one stout crust buried on 1/30. Uncertainty around these layers continues to keep travelers on their toes.

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