Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Generally safe avalanche conditions exist. Wet loose instability and lingering wind slab will be the primary concerns today. Watch for unstable snow on low-elevation solar aspects and in isolated pockets above 10,000 feet. Rain-on-snow will commence this evening to elevations as high as 8,000 feet.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Today, wet loose avalanches are possible on E-SE-S-SW-W aspects below and near treeline. Last night, Gray Butte weather station recording a minimum temperature of 34 degrees F at 5am. Today's temperatures are expected to be similar to yesterday, with a freezing level as high as 9,100 feet. Warm temperatures and poor overnight refreeze will surely loosen surface snow, allowing for point release, wet loose avalanches. These are most likely to happen under rock bands, and on exposed slopes that receive all day sun. Though relatively small, these avalanches have the potential to knock you off your feet and push you into consequential terrain. Pinwheels, roller balls, increasing boot penetration, and saturated surface snow are all signs of destabilizing snow. Avoid this issue by limiting your time on solar slopes in the hottest time of the day.

    (4/10/2024) Photo: Cory Beattie

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Today, wind slab will continue to be a problem, albeit unlikely. Southwest wind is expected to increase over the next 24 hours, reaching strong-extreme speeds above treeline. Snow will begin to fall late tonight, at elevations above 8,000 feet. Wind slabs could exist on S-SE-E-NE-N-NW aspects above treeline, particularly above 10,000 feet. Though unlikely, if triggered, these slabs could still injure or kill. If climbing above 10,000 feet, approach steep leeward slopes with caution. Look for visible lens-shaped slabs, cracking, and unusually deep snow as signs of wind loaded snow. 

    Shallow wind slab triggered on convex roll 

    Photo: Eric Falconer

Avalanche Discussion

An atmospheric river is on track to impact southern Oregon and northern California starting tonight. Unfortunately, the system is pushing a bit north of the forecast area. On the high end, Mount Shasta could receive 0.6 inches of SWE over the next 48 hours. To top it off, snow levels will likely be around 8,000 feet. In the next 24 hours, expect rain-on-snow at low elevations, and trace amounts of new snow above treeline.

Today, wet loose instability and lingering wind slab are the concerns. Look for wet loose instability on low elevation solar aspects, particularly in the late afternoon. This problem could worsen overnight with the expected rain-on-snow. Wind slab instability could still exist on the uppermost steep slopes of Mount Shasta (Red Banks, Trinity Chutes, Mud Creek Chutes). If triggered, these avalanches could still bury/kill, thus caution must be taken while approaching these areas.

Tonight's Event:

Access Updates:

  • OPEN: Everitt Memorial Highway, Snowman's Hill, Mt Shasta Ski Park & Mt Shasta Nordic Center, Pilgrim Creek Sno-Park (motorized use), Deer Mountain Sno-Park (motorized use)
  • CLOSED: Castle Lake road at gate

Regions covered