Avalanche forecast

Tetons

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
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Highlights

Avalanche conditions remain dangerous. You can trigger a large hard slab avalanche up to 3' thick today, possibly from above, below or from the middle of a slope.  Traveling conservatively in low angle terrain will decrease your odds of being caught. 

 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Moderate winds out the west/southwest blew in the mid 20’s mph at the upper elevations Sundayday morning. The wind formed some soft slabs up to a foot deep on some leeward (SE-E-NE) aspects and added strain to the persistant weak layer. These wind slabs are not widespread and are most likely to occur in very steep, wind affected terrain above 10,000’. 

    Evidence of wind loading on Sunday. Note the wavy texture of the snow surface.

    Photo: Noah McCorkel

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Large, human triggered avalanches have been reported almost every day for the past week, including one triggered remotely yesterday that was around 700' wide and 2-2.5' deep near Phillips Pass. An avalanche on Saturday in Moose Brush southwest of Teton Pass broke above the rider on a slope that had existing tracks on it. These are good examples of the avalanche problem you'll be dealing with above 8,000’ on north through east facing slopes. The firm slab beneath the good powder on the surface makes the weak layer of sugary snow stubborn to trigger and can lure the unsuspecting well onto a slope before an avalanche breaks. Warmer weather will make these avalanches easier to trigger.  Avoid steep rocky slopes on northerly, shaded aspects where this layer is most prevalent and probe regularly to confirm its presence. 

    (12/11/2023)

    Remote triggered avalanche from 1000' (yes a very long ways away) near Phillips Pass. 9200' E aspect

    Photo: Alex Drinkard

Avalanche Discussion

A weak early season snowpack has been put to the test and failed. Since December 1st, roughly 50” of snow with 4” of snow water equivalent (SWE) has fallen on top of weak, faceted snow that formed during the November drought. These loading events have added stress to buried weak layers resulting in numerous natural and human triggered avalanches. Large (D2) avalanches have been reported nearly every day since the storm cycle began. 

Warning signs like cracking and collapsing are less frequent but avalanches continue to occur.  Stubborn slabs  make it possible to ride out onto a slope, make a few turns, and then trigger a large avalanche that breaks above you.  The only surefire way to avoid triggering a dangerous avalanche is to steer clear of steep terrain, especially where it is rocky and rolls over. Ridges and low angle slopes are better places to enjoy the good snow.

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