Avalanche forecast

West Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Expect unseasonably warm conditions and wet avalanche activity in locations where there is a legitimate snowpack. Keep an eye on steep slopes overhead, especially those seeing strong, direct sunshine. Avoid traveling on or below terrain where you observe rollerballs, snow shedding from rocks, small avalanches, or glide cracks. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Sunday is forecast to be the warmest day since the sun came out. Widespread wet avalanche activity is not expected. But if you were to see or trigger a wet avalanche, then it would be the day. While there is a much higher probability of seeing wet avalanches on solar aspects, any slope can become unstable if it gets warm enough.

    Glide avalanches - when the entire snowpack peels off smooth ground below it - are also possible during warm conditions. One natural glide avalanche was reported today in West North and some more are expected tomorrow. Given the shallowness of our current snowpack most should be smaller in size. But it would still hurt a lot if you were in the way. There are also plenty of terrain traps and other hazards out there that would magnify the consequences of being caught in any avalanche. Look for and stay out from under glide cracks or snow clinging onto exposed rock slabs (see photo).

     

    (12/16/2023)

    A natural glide avalanche on Herman occurred midday Saturday. The cracks on either side of the avalanche bed surface indicate more portions of the slab could also slide off the rock below.

    ENE aspect at 4700' (WS-N-D1.5-G).

    Photo: Pete Durr - USFS

Avalanche Discussion

Look out for pockets of wind slab if you head up into the alpine. Continued alpine winds likely drifted any loose snow available for transport. A small wind slab avalanche can still carry you over a cliff or into a crevasse. 

Observers reported slightly cooler conditions on Saturday in West North compared to the previous days. Temperatures were a few degrees lower, ridgeline wind speeds were a bit higher, and there were more high clouds. Clear skies Friday night made for a shallow refreeze despite overnight low temperatures well above 32F. Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass saw their first warm-up with mid-elevation weather stations reporting temperatures near or above 40F. Observers reported softening snow but no signs of instability or avalanches at Stevens Pass.

There are still plenty of open creeks, exposed or partially buried rocks, stumps, and old, chunky avalanche debris. Stay vigilant to early season hazards.

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