Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist as new snow and wind have formed slabs on top of very weak facets and depth hoar layers deeper down in the snowpack. It's likely to trigger either a storm slab or persistent slab avalanche today at all elevations. Cracking and collapsing are indications that you've found unstable snow and this strong over weak snowpack structure. 

These types of conditions lend themselves to remotely triggering avalanches from the flats below or adjacent terrain features. Safer riding can be found on wind sheltered slopes less than 30 degrees. 

 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    1 to 3 foot slabs have formed on top of very weak facets and depth hoar that have formed from several dry periods in our overall shallow snowpack. Increasing winds later today will continue to load slopes, especially at upper elevations. These avalanches would be large, and have the potential to break near the ground, taking with it most of the season's snowpack.

    Watch for cracking and collapsing, as these are indications you've found this strong over weak snowpack structure and unstable snow. These types of conditions lend themselves to remote triggering, so avoid being beneath steep slopes above as it'll be possible to trigger avalanches from a long distance away.  

    This is a quick pit of the location we triggered a persistent slab avalanche. It failed in the December drought layer of Depth hoar near the ground.

    (1/24/2026) Photo: Andy Bond

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Storm slab avalanches were mainly failing at the old snow interface that is primarily large near surface facets that formed during the two weeks of high pressure before this latest storm. Expect storm slabs to grow in size with elevation, where increased winds have built thicker slabs.  Storm slabs are dangerous in their own right but in our current situation can also easily step down into deeper weak layers, creating a one-two punch and producing larger, more destructive avalanches. 

    In more wind sheltered areas especially on northerly aspects, it was easy to push the entire snowpack with ski penetration near the ground. It may be possible to get a steep slope to gouge down to the ground as a loose snow avalanche. 

    Storm slabs were failing yesterday at the old snow interface of buried near surface facets. 

    Photo: Charlie Harrison 1/24/26

Avalanche Discussion

Storm Totals across the region are 10 - 16 inches with 1.15 - 1.3" of snow water equivalent (SWE). Winds were light during the storm, but were effective at transporting snow at upper elevations.  We've let the avalanche warning expire as storm totals weren't as impressive as forecasted, with the system trending further south. With that said, conditions remain dangerous as recently formed slabs rest on top of several weak layers in the snowpack. 

Visibility was limited, and we didn't notice natural activity, but conditions were touchy yesterday. In travels below and near treeline, we had widespread cracking and collapsing. On almost all our test slopes, we triggered avalanches, oftentimes from long distances away along the ridgeline. Some avalanches were confined to the recent storm snow, others failed on deeper weak layers near the ground, and a couple stepped down, propagating wide distances (about 400') across the slope. This speaks to how reactive the slab is, and how fragile the weak layers are in our snowpack. Some settling and stiffening of the slab today, along with another round of loading from increasing winds this afternoon into the evening, may push some slopes past it's tipping point. 

The recent storm snow, has added the missing ingredient for us (a slab) that's sitting on top of persistent weak layers. Storm slab avalanches were mainly failing at the old snow interface of weak near surface facets that formed during the recent two-week-high pressure. Persistent slab avalanches failed closer to the ground in the December drought layer of depth hoar and large grain facets. This layer is relatively easy to identify, below a thin crust that formed during the warm and wet period around Christmas. Both of these persistent weak layers are close enough to the surface that it is easy to impact them. Even if you trigger a smaller storm slab avalanche, there's a real possibility that it steps down into deeper weak layers creating a larger avalanche taking with it most of the season snowpack.   

It's been a slow start to the season, and powder has been hard to come by. It's easy to want to chase soft turns in steeper terrain, but this snowpack is not one to trust right now. There's great riding to be had in lower angle, less consequential terrain as we wait for these weak layers to adjust to this new load.    

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