Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Generally safe avalanche conditions exist.  If you were to trigger an avalanche, it would be an isolated pocket above treeline where strong NW winds have drifted and pressed the snow into firmer, more cohesive slabs resting on top of weak facets.  These avalanches would be small but still have consequences in steep, exposed rocky terrain.  Coverage remains thin with ground hazards everywhere, making travel and riding challenging. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Although unlikely, it's not impossible to find isolated pockets of stiffer slabs that rests on top of weak faceted snow.  Moderate to strong winds have occurred over the past 48 hours, drifting and pressing the snow into stiffer slabs at the surface on leeward aspects and cross-loaded terrain features.  Pay close attention to stiffening snow underfoot or any obvious signs of recent wind-loading, as these are signs that you've hit a pocket with this strong-over-weak setup.  Any avalanche triggered would be small but could have serious consequences in steep exposed terrain as it may break close to the ground in our shallow snowpack and knock you into rocks or other obstacles.

Avalanche Discussion

Over the last 48 hours, we've had moderate to strong winds out of the Northwest transporting some snow and pressing the snow on leeward and cross-loaded terrain features into stiffer and harder slabs.  The winds have decreased but will still be gusting in the 20-30mph range today.  If you're getting out, your greatest focus in terms of avalanche hazard should be open and exposed areas on Northerly and East aspects at upper elevations, where enough of a slab may exist near the surface that it could break on our December drought layers and release a pocket within a larger slope.  This exceptionally weak snow from our first storms of the winter remains quite close to the surface even in the deepest areas, and will be the primary driver of future avalanche cycles as soon as we see another significant storm. 

At lower elevations and more wind-sheltered slopes, the snowpack is even more shallow and also extremely weak.  The snow from the 1/7-1/9 storm is faceting on the surface, and snow from earlier in the season is developing into more advanced facets and depth hoar.  Ski penetration on most slopes still remains close to the ground, and hitting buried hazards like downed logs and rocks continues to be the biggest problem.  Overall, we have 1 to 3 foot snowpack on northerly, east, and the typical cross-loaded west-facing terrain. 

With about a week of continued high pressure, expect the faceting process to continue in our shallow snowpack.  This widespread weak layer isn't much of a concern right now since we lack a reactive slab on top.  Once we do get more significant snow, this weak snow will become a major concern.        (1/15/2026) Photo: Charlie Harrison 

 

Until we see significant precipitation again, we will remain in the status quo of low avalanche danger.  There's a bit of hope in the long-range models as this stubborn ridge looks to start breaking down later in the upcoming week, potentially giving way to snowfall next weekend.  Whenever we do see another decent storm, expect our weak and shallow snowpack to struggle as we have widespread persistent weak layers.

Regions covered