Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

As we ever so slowly ease out of an active weather period, the likelihood of triggering a large slab avalanche remains elevated. Keep steering around steep slopes when you see clear signs that storm snow is cracking and unstable in both sheltered and exposed terrain. If the sun permeates thin cloud coverage enough on Friday, you could see sluffs of wetted snow releasing from steep cliff bands and rock features. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Friday marks the end of a very active weather week, but we're not quite out of the weeds yet. Wind slabs are likely still reactive in upper elevation terrain. They are deeper and more sensitive on north and east aspects. At middle elevations, both wind slab and storm slab avalanches are still on the table too. Clear signs of instability in both problems include long shooting cracks from your equipment, collapsing, and recent slab avalanches. You can find small, inconsequential test slopes indicative of the terrain you want to ski or ride to test for these signs, but as wind slabs trend more stubborn, the less likely you are to get clear feedback. Some better clues to look out for are a change to denser feeling snow underneath you, and cornice or drift development. Textured surfaces may be obscured by freshly fallen snow in areas closer to the Cascade Crest, but you can watch for blowing snow in these areas to signal where very small, fresh slabs are forming. Hand pits are also an excellent tool to test the bond of interstorm layers.

    (1/7/2026)

    A large (D2) natural avalanche involving most of the recent storm snow (1-2ft) on a very steep convex feature. This occured before daylight on 1/7. Moonlight, E, 4,300ft. (SS-N-D2-I)

    Photo: Josh Hirshberg

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Friday isn't expected to get particularly warm or sunny. Nonetheless, there is a lot of fresh, dry snow out there that will be easily influenced by this transition to dry weather. When you start noticing large clumps of snow falling from trees or cliffs and roller balls forming, mark that as a sign that the snowpack is warming and weakening. Pay attention to the terrain around you as sluffs can start in steep terrain above, and carry you into terrain traps below. If the sun comes out enough that surfaces get sticky and moist, you'll want to retreat to more sheltered terrain. We suspect that at upper elevations, the snowpack will remain too cold and hardened by the wind to be as easily affected.

    (12/31/2025)

    A small natural wet loose on a SE aspect of Mt Herman.

    Photo: Jason Speer

Avalanche Discussion

These transition days from active weather to high pressure can be tough to forecast when it's not a sharp jump from cold and stormy to hot and sunny. There are many weather and snowpack properties your local avalanche forecaster loses sleep over, which influence how quickly storm instabilities heal or persist. This is exacerbated by the fact that the last single piece of snowpack information we have for the zone is from December 28th. Ultimately, Friday will be the first day post-storm, so it behooves you to gently ease your way into the backcountry.

There is likely a significant difference in overall snowpack depths between lower and upper elevations, as well as areas close to the Cascade Crest versus further east. Precipitation totals for this week reported by weather stations are 2.3 inches at Bumping Ridge and 1.3 inches at Green Lake. Generally, 0.1 inches of precipitation is equivalent to 1 inch of snow, but most of this snow was low density, so observed snow depths were initially much deeper before the snow settled. Based on observations from other zones, all of this new snow in addition to a small amount of older snow overlays a crust that formed on 01/02. It is refrozen and supportable above 5000 ft, and less so below. Minimal signs of instability associated with it have been observed; however, Mission Ridge Pro Patrol triggered a wind slab avalanche that stepped down to this crust in their mitigation work on Thursday morning.

Despite all this awesome new snow, open creeks, downed logs, and other hazards remain obstacles at lower elevations and in areas with shallower snowpacks. They may be obscured by new snow now, so take your time as you move around the backcountry. In choosing terrain to ride, consider the consequence of a slide- if one happens, where will it take you? Look for slopes with a clean run-out free of bone-breaking trees, creeks, and rocks. 

Regions covered