Avalanche forecast

Selkirk Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Rapid warming and significant slab settling is adding more stress to buried weak layers in the upper snowpack and increasing the chances to trigger a large, dangerous avalanche - and some could fail naturally. Initiating a wet snow slide in steeper terrain at mid and upper elevations could be the precursor of a more dangerous avalanche. If you find yourself sinking past boot tops into wet, rotten snow, retreat to lower-angled slopes and avoid traveling below steeper slopes to avoid an unexpected avalanche encounter.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Rapidly changing weather and evidence of recent slab avalanches have put Persistent Weak Layers back in the spotlight. After trending less and less reactive, yesterday we found evidence of multiple large avalanches that failed in recent days, likely provoked by the added load of rain on snow event from Monday and rapid warming introducing liquid water to the upper snowpack. Throughout our forecast areas, slabs two to three feet thick rest on top of a variety of weaker snow layers in the upper snowpack.There are subtle differences in the weak snow concerns between the individual forecast zones, and the primary layer of concern is different depending on whether you are travelling in the Northern or Southern Mountain region. Shallowly buried and therefore more likely to be impacted by a rider or machine, is a layer of surface hoar and faceted grains that was buried on January 2. This layer has been the primary layer of concern for the Selkirk and West Cabinet Mountains and is the likely weak layer in two recently observed avalanches in the Selkirk range. These problematic grains are found at both middle and upper elevations, across most aspects, and continue to produce propagating failures in tests. The same surface hoar layer is not as prevalent in the Southern Mountains where rain on January 2 climbed higher in elevation and helped to destroy the surface hoar before being buried.

    The primary layer of concern in the Bitterroot Mountains are facets surrounding the Christmas “Grinch Crust”. This layer is buried deeper and has been trending a bit faster to being less reactive now that the dense slab above is helping compress the layers above. Places where the snowpack is thinner near rocky outcrops, wind-scoured areas, or backsides of steep rollovers increases your chances to impact these weak layers and a failure could expand into places with a deeper slab.An avalanche in either one of these weak layers would be large, and could evolve into a high-consequence, potentially deadly scenario. Compounding the hazard is the danger of a Loose Wet avalanche stepping down, or a skier or rider punching through weak wet snow, to trigger an avalanche on one of these Persistent Weak Layers. Today is a good day to back off steep complex terrain and allow the snowpack time to once again reach an equilibrium. Avoid slopes steeper than 35 degrees where punchy wet snow is present and be particularly mindful of overhead hazards where naturally occurring Wet Loose avalanches could provoke larger persistent slab avalanches.

    (1/13/2026)

    A large natural avalanche likely triggered by rapidly warming temperatures following an extended period of cold, snowy weather. The slide failed on a northeast aspect around 5,350 feet and we estimated the crown around 4 feet deep. Selkirk Mountains. January 14, 2026.

    Photo: Chris Bilbrey

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Yesterday, Tuesday, all of our field observations reported wet loose problems emerging after overnight lows failed to hit freezing. With another night of above freezing temperatures and today, Wednesday, forecast to be the warmest day of the week, we know that wet snow problems are an issue at all elevations today. Loose Wet avalanches alone have the potential to knock a skier or rider off their feet and carry them through, or into terrain traps, and are notorious for setting up like concrete once the snow stops moving. However our biggest concern today is the potential for Wet Loose avalanches to step down to one of the variety of Persistent Weak Layers that lurk below the surface and initiated a very large and potentially deadly avalanche.In our current circumstance there has been no re-freeze for 48 hrs. Cool lower elevation inversions and a stronger snowpack with less warming at upper elevations mean the problem is most pronounced at our middle elevation band. Moist and sticky surface snow, roller balls or pinwheels that grow in size, and water dripping out of snow in trees are all classic signs that temperatures are elevated and liquid water is present in the upper snowpack. Yesterday tree bombs, snow shedding out of cliffs and cornice falls that ran long distances and entrained snow were fair warning of the potential for larger Loose Wet avalanches. Today human triggered Wet Loose avalanches will be likely on steeper sustained slopes that have wet surface snow greater than 6 inches. Unfortunately, the current conditions are not like in the Springtime when we manage wet loose problems by timing our activities to take advantage of the nightly re-freeze. Today is a great day to plan to stay off of sustained slopes that exceed 35 degrees from the get go where Wet Loose avalanches are most likely and the potential for a step down to Persistent Weak Layers could be deadly.

    Long-running point releases and pinwheels like this may be possible across steep slopes as rapid warming and sunshine wets the snow surface at all elevations.

    Photo: Jackson George

Avalanche Discussion

The amount of change in the snowpack over the past couple days is staggering. Monday’s rain coupled with temperatures elevated well above freezing for the past 48hrs over most of your forecast area has contributed to rapid settlement, sloppy surface snow and a re-emergence of our Persistent Weak Layer problem.

Heading into this week the forecast team was growing in confidence that the Persistent Weak Layers were trending towards non-reactive as signs propagation potential were diminishing. But new data and rapidly changing conditions necessitated re-considering the problem. The discovery of a couple of recent large slab avalanches on Tuesday is the bulls-eye evidence that the widespread Persistent Weak Layer problems are still out there and dangerous. Combine this with the emergence of the Wet Loose problem at all elevations and we have the recipe for complex, overlapping, avalanche hazards today. Trying to outsmart the hazard, especially considering the potential size and destructive power of the underlying Persistent Slab Avalanche, is not a good idea.

Recent upper and mid-level cloud cover have acted like a blanket that has trapped warm air in the mountains. In the coming nights clear skies will allow warmth trapped in the snowpack to radiate into the atmosphere. This will begin to look much more like the diurnal cycle we are used to seeing in the Springtime when the upper snowpack re-freezes and locks up each night. But in the meantime, the chance of punching through weak wet surface snow or initiating a Wet Loose avalanche that steps down increases the chances of triggering a large and destructive avalanche that could bury and kill a person. Today is a good day to stick to lower angle slopes; or better yet, bid your time for more stable conditions to return in the coming days.

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