Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Blizzard-like weather with strong winds and heavy snow will create increasingly dangerous conditions throughout the day. You will easily trigger large avalanches in steep terrain, especially where the wind drifts snow into deep slabs. Avoid steep, wind-exposed terrain. Your safer option is to choose low-angle slopes within forested areas to avoid triggering a large, consequential avalanche. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Heavy snow, strong winds, and slight warming are a recipe for avalanches, and danger will increase as the day progresses. In sheltered terrain, you could easily trigger storm slab avalanches as precipitation rates increase. The most dangerous terrain will be wind-loaded slopes near ridgelines and exposed locations, where avalanches will be larger and easier to trigger. Wind speeds will be strong, and most exposed terrain will have wind-loaded features. Avoid steep terrain and convex rollovers, especially in wind-affected areas. Instead, stick to low-angle forested slopes as your safest option. At upper elevations and along steep ridgelines, natural avalanches could occur, so don't linger in the runouts of large overhead avalanche paths. 

    (12/24/2024)

    An example of steep terrain where you are likely to trigger an avalanche, as in this photo. 

    Photo: Katie Warren

Avalanche Discussion

We're thankful for the change in weather, but it's certainly going to be drastic. The early morning hours may feel like an average storm day, but by the afternoon, you'll likely be facing blizzard-like conditions. Wind speeds could peak in the 30-50mph range, and there is high potential for precipitation rate between 1-2" per hour. It will not only be a dangerous day, but also a very unpleasant one in exposed locations. Conservative terrain choices will be essential. 

At upper elevations, there could be some preserved weak surfaces that will be buried. These would probably exist at the very upper extent of our forecast, but check the bond with the old snow surface or dig down to identify any weak snow. If you find hard over soft layering or easy shears in hand pits, back off steep terrain objectives. With heavy snow avalanches that may fail on weak grains, the resulting avalanches could be even larger than expected and run longer distances. 

The snow surface is currently 6-8" of light snow over the 1/3 melt-freeze crust. While observers noted some storm interfaces, this snow has shown a favorable bond to the underlying crust. There are a few notable crusts lower in the snowpack. The December 24th crust is buried about 1' deep and can be found up to around 5500ft in elevation. A thicker crust from December 18th is 2-3' deep, and we expect it exists at most elevations, although we don't have information to confirm it extends past 6000ft. These crusts haven't shown any signs of instability, but they are useful markers for tracking the snowpack. The next 3 days of storms will be a good test for any lingering instabilities within the snowpack. 

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