Avalanche forecast

Provo

Issued Jan 1, 2026valid to Jan 2, 2026Utah Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger

Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline

Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

MODERATE avalanche danger exists on W-N-E facing slopes above 9,000 feet. You could trigger a hard slab avalanche breaking 1-3 feet deep and up to 100 feet wide on a persistent weak layer, specifically on steep, rocky slopes loaded by wind.

A slick rain crust is creating hazardous slide-for-life conditions. Exercise extra caution on steep, exposed terrain where self-arrest would be difficult.

Avalanche problems

Persistent Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Possible
Size
2
The Christmas Eve Rain Crust (CERC) is creating a tricky, low-probability but high-consequence scenario. Crust thickness is a critical variable. Overall, less rain fell in the Southern Wasatch during the Christmas Rain event, and has left potentially more areas where the crust is thinner, making it easier to impact weak layers near the ground.

We are most concerned with slopes above 9500 feet where less rain fell, and the crust is thinner. The challenge is that we don't have a clear pattern of where those places are. Recent avalanche activity in the Central Wasatch provides clues, but as we enter a storm period, uncertainty surrounding the crust/facet combination remains high. It is a good idea to build in a margin and avoid terrain with characteristics similar to the Sunset Peak avalanche: steep, rocky, wind-exposed.

Looking at the bed surface of the Sunset Peak avalanche is a sober reminder of the consequences of being caught in this type of avalanche right now; the relatively thin veil of snow masks the rock grinder you'd be dragged through.

A snowpit from a Northeast Aspect at 9200 feet. 8 inches of post-christmas storm snow above a 1 inch thick rain crust. Base of the snopwack was 5 inches of moist, rounding depth hoar.
Wind Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Possible
Size
1
By late day, accumulating snow and moderate SW wind will build shallow soft slabs up to 10 inches thick near exposed ridges. While these surface avalanches will likely be small, they could step down into the deeper, more dangerous hard slab problem (1-3' deep) on upper elevation W-N-E slopes.

'Radiation Recrystallization' (near-surface facets) formed on upper elevation SE aspects over the last few days. While the warm daytime temperatures likely destroyed this layer in most locations, it may survive in isolated pockets and create more sensitive slabs here.

Recent Activity

Other than some minor loose snow avalanches over the last few days, nothing significant was reported.

Snow and Weather

Under mostly cloudy skies, temperatures at 11,000' have cooled into the 30s °F, down from yesterday's highs in the 40s. The morning wind is blowing out of the SW and is currently 10–15 mph with gusts into the 20s.

Another warm and wet storm is on tap for today. Snowfall begins early this morning with snow levels starting around 7,000 feet before quickly rising to 8,500 feet by late morning and remaining there through the day. Expect a sloppy rain/snow mix in the mid-canyons, with potential for freezing rain at canyon mouths. The wind will remain out of the SW, blowing 15–25 mph with gusts in the 30s and 40s along upper elevation ridges. By early evening, expect 2 to 6 inches of dense, heavy snow above 8,000', with up to 8 inches in high-elevation areas favored by moist SW flow.

After a break in precipitation this evening, a cold front moves in tonight. This brings another round of moisture, snow levels drop to near 7000 feet, and snow densities decrease.

New essay from UAC Forecaster Drew Hardesty: Paying Attention

On Monday, I traveled up Big Springs. Coverage is thin, and travel is slow, but I was able to make it up to 9200'. Coverage improves above 8500 feet. You can view my full observation HERE.

General Announcements

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

Backcountry Emergency Procedures