Avalanche forecast

Northern Wallowas

Wallowa Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Warming temperatures will increase the chances of triggering a wet loose avalanche in steep terrain today- especially on solar aspects.    Below the surface, persistent weak layers lurk and are buried 2-3 feet in the snowpack.  While the likelihood of triggering a persistent slab avalanche is decreasing, the consequence of triggering such an avalanche remains high.  When in doubt, choose simple terrain that is less than 30 degrees in steepness. 

Today's forecast is sponsored by: Robert Brooks Painting

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    The Valentine's Buried Surface Hoar layer, along with weak faceted snow from the January Drought (buried on Feb 8), exists in the upper 3 feet of the snowpack. If you trigger a slab avalanche on either or both of these fragile weak layers, you will likely produce a large to very large avalanche.   

    Persistent Slab avalanches can release in surprising ways:

    • They can be much wider than expected 
    • They can break above you and pull into relatively gentle terrain.
    • Persistent slab avalanches can and will release on slopes that already have snowmachine or ski tracks. 
    • Although unlikely right now, you can trigger them remotely—from flat terrain below, above, and to the sides of steep slopes.  

    Specific terrain features that you should avoid: 

    • Rocky areas that are also convex rollovers- these areas may harbor a shallower snowpack and could be easier to trigger a persistent slab avalanche.
    • Slopes on the north half of the compass that are protected from the wind but are connected to larger open slopes that may have had previous wind loading.  

    If you have uncertainty in managing this avalanche problem, you are in good company.   The absence of obvious signs of instability, such as collapsing or whumphing of the snowpack, does not necessarily mean a slope is safe to ride.  Avoidance is our top (and our only) tool when it comes to dealing with a persistent slab.   Further slope scale investigation is warranted if you decide to commit to consequential terrain.  

    Surface Hoar has been found in protected areas on NW through SW aspects. 

    (3/6/2026) Photo: Victor McNeil

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    As the sun and warm temperatures warm the snow surface, expect to see rollerballs as a preview of wet loose avalanches.  Oftentimes, wet loose avalanches release near rocks where the sun heats the snow up faster.  If you are sinking up to your ankles in wet snow, avoid steep slopes and seek shadier aspects.   Avoid traveling on or below steep solar aspects in the afternoon. 

    Natural Wet Loose avalanches on the South aspect of Red Mountain. 

    (3/7/2026) Photo: Wallowa Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

A complex snowpack exists in many locations and the specific structure may vary from drainage to drainage.    The buried persistent weak layers are at a depth in the snowpack where the overlying slab can and will support the weight of a rider and these layers are becoming more difficult to trigger.  Forecasters and observers have been seeing mixed results in snowpack tests.  The trend is that we are seeing propagating results in snowpack tests where the Valentine's Day buried surface hoar exists.  This layer is becoming harder to identify, and the surface hoar may be mixed in with graupel.

Use the forecast as a starting point, but as you travel, continue assessing conditions- both on and below the snow surface.

Spooky MODERATE refers to deceptively dangerous low-probability/high-consequence conditions. Natural avalanches are unlikely on our persistent weak layers, and even a rider won't trigger them on some of the slopes with buried surface hoar.  Focus on the consequence (not the likelihood) of triggering a large to very large avalanche on one of these weak layers.  When in doubt, fall back to conservative terrain choices.  

In addition to the Persistent Slab problem and the Wet Loose avalanche concerns today, lingering wind slabs may still be present along exposed ridgelines.  Warming temperatures have relaxed many windslabs, but continue to test the reactiveness of wind-loaded test slopes that have little to no consequence.  

Observations: If you are out in the mountains, please send us an observation of what you saw. All observations are noteworthy and greatly help the forecasters. If you don't want everyone to see where you went, you can set it to private so only the forecasters will see it. 

Beacon Parks: Thank you to everyone who helped establish the beacon training park at Anthony Lakes (across from the ski lift on Mud Lake) and near the warming shelter at Salt Creek Summit snopark outside of Joseph, OR. These are free tools that we should all take advantage of.  

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