Avalanche forecast

Seward and Lost Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Light new snow and rain to 500' will add stress to persistent weak layers buried 1–2' deep, increasing the chance of human-triggered avalanches in steep and wind-loaded terrain. At lower elevations, rain on poorly refrozen snow may produce larger wet avalanches that can become destructive. Avoid steep terrain if sinking ankle-deep or deeper into wet snow, and use caution on wind-loaded slopes where signs of instability are present.

MONDAY'S AVALANCHE OUTLOOK: Chances of large wet snow avalanches are expected to increase as poor overnight refreezes combine with strong solar warming under clearing skies. Avalanche danger will start MODERATE in the morning and rise to CONSIDERABLE by afternoon and evening, with natural wet loose avalanches likely and wet slabs possible — especially at lower elevations. Human-triggered slabs on buried weak layers 1–2' deep remain possible in steep, wind-loaded terrain. Stick to lower-angle slopes and avoid terrain traps to minimize your exposure. If you are sinking ankle-deep or deeper into wet snow, switch to shadier aspects to avoid natural wet avalanches.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

Forecast Operations: Beginning this week we will be forecasting Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday and Sunday. Our last forecast will be Thursday, April 30th followed by our annual "Spring Tips" forecast on May 1st. 

Hiking on trails below avalanche paths this time of year is dangerous and not recommended.  Avalanches may release into valley bottoms, covering up summer hiking trails. This includes the Marathon Jeep Trail, which is a terrain trap for most of the hike. Other trails in this area that can be dangerous right now include the Russian Lakes trail to the Barber Cabin, Crescent Lake, Ptarmigan Lake, and Victor Creek Trail. 

 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Recent Avalanches: On Monday there was a human triggered avalanche on Resurrection Peak outside of Seward. The person was briefly caught and managed to escape the debris which ran almost 4,000’ to the valley bottom. 

    Today’s light snowfall is arriving on an atypical northwest flow, favoring the Front Range, Hatcher Pass, and the western Kenai Mountains. The Seward area is expected to see only 1 to 2" of new snow. Stronger winds will show up again for this northwest flow, averaging 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph

    The main concern is the added load from this new snow onto persistent weak layers buried in the upper 1 to 2' of the snowpack. Recent human-triggered avalanches show these layers remain sensitive and have the potential to produce large avalanches, especially in wind-loaded terrain and steep slopes. The problem exists on all aspects and is most concerning in the treeline band and above. Areas that received more snow in the past two weeks (such as the Seward Coastal Mountains) have greater depth and higher trigger likelihood.

    To avoid this issue, you can always stick to lower-angle terrain and steer clear of terrain traps. Red flags like collapsing (whumphing) or shooting cracks are strong signals that conditions are dangerous. You can dig snowpits to assess the buried weak layers, but it can be tricky to find a representative location, and test results are often unreliable with persistent weak layers. On a stormy day like today, conservative route-finding and good group communication remain essential.

    Wind Slabs up to 6 to 12" deep may form in isolated pockets within the new snow and could produce small avalanches. However, with the modest new snow amounts expected, these are not too concerning on their own. The bigger issue is the potential for wind loading to locally increase the load on the underlying persistent weak layers.

    Snowfall forecast for Sunday, 4.12

    Photo: NWS Anchorage

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Cloudy skies overnight likely prevented a solid refreeze of the wet surface snow at lower elevations and on solar aspects. Combined with the chance of rain rising to 500', larger wet loose avalanches may become more likely today, especially at lower elevations. These often start small but can quickly gain momentum and volume, becoming surprisingly destructive as they run to the bottom of paths.

    If you are sinking into wet snow up to your ankle or deeper, it is a clear sign to avoid steep terrain. Wet loose avalanches can entrain significant snow and run farther than expected.

    Wet Slab Avalanches are also becoming more likely as meltwater moves deeper into the snowpack. In areas receiving rain today or where the snow feels saturated, there is potential for larger wet slabs to release on old weak layers. These avalanches can be very large and highly destructive — the best strategy is to avoid avalanche terrain entirely during periods of strong melt or rain-on-snow.

    (4/8/2026)

    Wet loose avalanches easily initiated by the weight of a skier below 1500'.

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