Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

It will be difficult to evade the wet snow on Saturday. Warm temperatures and rainfall will destabilize the surface snow above a recent crust. Use inconsequential test slopes to check for entrainment before venturing onto longer open slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Rain falling to increasingly higher elevations Friday through Friday night should moisten or saturate previously shallow amounts of cold snow above the 3/4 crust. By Saturday, any precipitation should be very light and sporadic, but the conditions for shallow loose wet avalanches remain. You can trigger them in areas where you encounter stick or wet snow up to the top of your ankle. Take a moment to push this snow on a steep slope and see whether it wants to continue down the slope or stops. If the former, consider whether an avalanche, once initiated could become larger than you expect on a long, steep slope. Terrain traps increase your risk if you are pushed into a gully, creek, or shallow snow cover obstacles. This problem is mostly confined to areas above 5000 ft that received 4-6" or more of recent snow. In the eastern Olympics, this problem may be more pronounced due to greater recent snow depths. Observers on Mt Elinor reported about 1 ft of sticky snow easily pushable down-slope above a firm crust. It is in these areas on a long, steep slope where a wet loose avalanche could become dangerous.

    Example: Recently wetted surface layers of previously cold, dry snow could slide as temperatures increase. 

    Photo: Matt Primomo

Avalanche Discussion

Our winter of fluctuating snow levels continues. Snow changed to rain at Hurricane Ridge on Friday, wetting several inches of sticky snow that fell above atop the 4-6" of snow fell that buried a variably thick ~1" crust on 3/4.  Photos from the gallery depict this dry snow that existed on the surface on Thursday.

 Below that you'll likely find dense older snow. We have been continuing to monitor facets and surface hoar above the 2/13 crust about 2 ft below the snow surface. ONP Rangers in the Klahanie Bowl area found the facets to be rounding, but did not find the surface hoar in either of two snow pit locations. The rounding facets just above the 2/13 crust had enough of a cohesive slab above to produce minimal reactivity in PST tests, showing improvement relative to last week. The 3/4 crust bridges these weaknesses at present in the Hurricane Ridge area, but you may not find that to be the case in other portions of the range. There is a slight chance that the 3/4 crust may break down as temperatures stay unseasonably warm through Saturday. If this occurs and you find yourself sinking into moist or wet snow past your ankles, conditions are not in line with the current forecast and could be more dangerous in your area. WIn this case, wet avalanches could gouge more deeply to become large, or alternatively wet avalanches could wake up our sleeping weaker layers. When uncertainty exists, use terrain selections to choose simple slopes less than 35 degrees. Persistent slabs are notorious for surprising backcountry travelers; they break more widely across the slope and can be triggered from lower-angle terrain than run-of-the-mill storm slab avalanches. Whumphing was observed in the NE Olympics around Baldy on 3/1. This was a clear sign that these layers held some reactivity at the time. Several natural avalanche crowns from from late February were visible in the Hurricane Ridge area and also the Bailey Range and likely resulted from the previously weak snowpack structure. 

Lower elevations have melted out once again in the Hurricane Ridge area.  Even at middle elevations, many aspects remain thin, presenting travel obstacles.  Travel cautiously in these areas to avoid injury.  

This is an unusual snowpack setup for the Olympics and we need your observations! Share what you see with us, we love photos and clear descriptions. Read the neighboring Cascade zones to see how persistent slabs and an extended period of strong winds are leading to dangerous conditions in many areas. 

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