Avalanche forecast

Seward and Lost Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

There is a mix of wet snow, new snow, and persistent avalanche problems out there today.  At lower elevations, wet avalanches on steep terrain are the main problem. At higher elevations, buried weak layers and avalanches within the new snow could be easily triggered after the recent wind and snow. We recommend a cautious approach today, avoiding steep slopes and terrain traps. In the Seward Coastal Mountains, the danger will be elevated due to the heavy recent precipitation, and travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.

WEDNESDAY AVALANCHE OUTLOOK: A break between storms and colder overnight temperatures should help stabilize the snowpack on Wednesday. You should evaluate how well the snowpack freezes overnight to determine how concerning wet snow avalanches will be. There will still be the potential to trigger larger avalanches on buried weak layers above 2000', especially on northern aspects. Lingering wind slabs and new snow instabilities in areas that received the brunt of Monday's storm will still have the potential to produce human-triggered avalanches. 

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

Forecast Operations:  Our last forecast will be Thursday, April 30th, followed by our annual "Spring Tips" on May 1st. 

Hiking on trails below avalanche paths this time of year is dangerous and not recommended.  Avalanches may release into valley bottoms, covering up summer hiking trails. This includes the Byron Glacier Trail and the Trail of Blue Ice in Portage Valley and the Crow Pass Trail in Girdwood Valley. Remember that as long as there are snowy mountains above you, avalanches can come down to snow-free hiking trails.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Recent Avalanches: Several recent avalanches were observed on Saturday in the Snug Harbor area within the new storm and windblown snow. Several large wet loose avalanches were also observed on southerly facing slopes. On April 11 and 12, several slab avalanches were observed on a hot southerly slope on Lowell Peak, where a larger avalanche ran to the ground.

    For those brave souls continuing to venture into the mountains, avalanche conditions are quite spicy for late April. The storm in the past 24 hours brought heavy rain and snowfall to coastal areas near Seward, with 1.2" of water recorded at Exit Glacier SNOTEL in the past 24 hours, which equates to about 12 to 14" of new snow above 2000'. Grouse Creek received about 0.6" of water in the past 24 hours, which should be about 6 to 8" of new snow above the rainline. Snug Harbor was not favored by this storm, with only 0.1" of water or 1 to 2" of new snow at upper elevations. This storm also brought strong east and southeast winds, averaging 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

    In the Seward Coastal Mountains, both human-triggered and natural avalanches about 1 to 2' deep within the new snow are likely today. These could occur in sheltered areas where the new snow might not bond well to the old snow surface or in wind-loaded areas near ridgelines and upper elevations. To identify areas of concern, you can track the new snow amounts and look for obvious signs of unstable conditions like recent avalanches, shooting cracks, or collapsing within the new snow. The weight of this new snow is falling on top of existing weak layers, see problem 2 for more information. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Above 2000' on northern and shaded aspects, there remains the potential to trigger a deeper avalanche 1–3' deep on buried weak layers of surface hoar and facets. The recent storm has added a significant load in favored coastal areas, making these slabs more sensitive to human triggering today. These weak layers lingering in the snowpack are a good reason to keep your terrain choices conservative, by sticking to lower-angle slopes and avoiding terrain traps like cliffs, gullies, and creek beds.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    It has been several days since the last refreeze below 1500', and the snowpack is saturated with meltwater. In the field yesterday, I was sinking knee to hip deep in wet snow, which is a strong sign of the potential for wet snow avalanches. On steep terrain, it will be easy to initiate a wet loose avalanche, which could gain momentum and build into a large avalanche on long slopes. 

    So far this spring, we have not seen much wet slab avalanche activity. But the setup seems prime to start producing wet slabs with the combination of rain up to 1500' and warm temperatures. These avalanches are much larger and more dangerous than wet loose because they are unpredictable. If you find yourself sinking into wet snow more than ankle deep, we recommend staying off steep slopes. 

    (4/25/2026)

    We saw multiple wet loose avalanches like this in the Snug Harbor and Boulder Creek area on Saturday. These were likely triggered by small roller balls falling from the cornice. 

    Photo: Andrew Schauer

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