Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Record-setting temperatures and hot sunshine are creating dangerous avalanche conditions. Large, destructive natural and human-triggered wet avalanches are likely. The timing of wet avalanches is hard to predict. Avoid slopes where the snowpack is mushy, and don't linger beneath large, avalanche paths. On colder slopes, triggering a large slab avalanche is possible in wind-affected terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Two varieties of wet snow avalanches are likely on steep, wind-sheltered slopes:

    1. Wet Slab: These beasts are unpredictable. They release as buried weak layers become wet. We anticipate these avalanches to break 1-4 feet thick, creating a dangerous, likely unsurvivable avalanche. They can break widely and without warning. The only way to reduce your risk is to avoid traveling on or under steep slopes. 
    2. Wet Loose:  These avalanches are most likely during the heat of the day on slopes that face the sun. They often initiate near the bases of trees, rocks, and cliffs. Although slow-moving, these avalanches are surprisingly powerful and difficult to escape. They may also trigger larger wet slab avalanches (example) as they move downhill.

    Additional Discussion - Cornices: Avoid large, overhanging cornices. The heat will cause these to sag and break. Scary in their own right, they also serve as excellent triggers for the two wet avalanche concerns described above. 

    (3/19/2026) Wet loose avalanche in Prairie Ck. SE @ 9,500'.

    Photo: Sawtooth Avalanche Center

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2

    It's possible to trigger dry, slab avalanches at upper elevations. Look for this problem near and just below exposed ridgelines and along cross-loaded mid-slope gullies and in cirques below steep faces, large cliff bands, and chutes. 

    Recent cornice growth, pillows, and dunes are all clues that wind was at work moving snow.  Cracking and collapsing are sure indications that you've found a sensitive slab.

    These avalanches may break more deeply or widely than expected, as the slab may be resting on buried weak layers (sugary facets, surface hoar, and crust + facet combinations)—particularly on NW, N, NE, and E facing slopes.

    (3/17/2026) Wet loose-triggered slab avalanches near Imogene Peak in the Southern Sawtooth Range on an E aspect at ~9400'. 

    Photo: Sawtooth Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

It's day 4 of a record-breaking heat wave. Multiple days and nights without a solid freeze are pushing meltwater deep into the snowpack. Our main concern and source of greatest uncertainty is how the persistent weak layers we buried in February will be affected once meltwater arrives. 

These weak layers are ugliest on cold, shaded middle and upper elevation slopes, and formed the basis of the long-running Persistent Slab problem we've dealt with over the past month. Each day, the sun climbs higher in the sky, and the oppressive heatwave sends meltwater deeper into colder snowpacks. Wet slabs release when meltwater reaches and pools at these weak layer interfaces. The exact timing is hard to predict, but our best guess is that it's happening now.

With multiple, overlapping avalanche problems and a healthy dose of uncertainty, it's a challenging day to play it safe. To some extent, you can reduce your risk by traveling early and getting back to the car for brunch, but don't expect those thin surface crusts to keep you out of the mush for long. The only surefire way to reduce your risk is to limit your exposure to avalanche terrain.  

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