Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Heavy snow and very strong winds are creating dangerous avalanche conditions at all elevations.  Storm slabs will continue to grow and thicken during the day and are forming on smooth crusts or weak and collapsable near-surface facets.  These storm slabs will be dangerous on their own but can also step down into deeper weak layers creating a much larger and more destructive avalanche.  Rapid loading will stress deeper buried persistent weak layers that may become more reactive than what we've seen over the last couple of weeks. Avoid traveling on or beneath slopes steeper than 30 degrees. 

 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Heavy snow and strong winds will continue to build storm slabs today.  These slabs could grow to be 2 feet thick at upper elevations on the leeward sides of ridgelines and in cross-loaded terrain features.  With heavy dense snow and gusts in the 60 - 80 mph range slopes may be loading further below the tops of ridgelines than you might expect.  Strong winds in our Box Canyon forecast area don't be surprised if you find winds coming from every direction at times depending on where you are. These slabs are forming on a variety of different surfaces from crusts to near-surface facets and most likely will not be bonding well to the existing snow surface.  Storm slab avalanches could be dangerous on their own breaking widely across slopes and terrain features, but could also step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger and more destructive avalanche.  Watch for obvious wind-drifted pillows, stiffening of the snow surface and shooting cracks off your boards, or loud audible collapses. Avoid slopes that are actively loading or where you find 8 or more inches of snow. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Heavy snowfall and wind will be loading slopes and stressing deeper buried weak layers, that could become more reactive and struggle to handle this rapid loading.  In shallow snowpack (<1.5m) before this storm, depth hoar, the early January facet layer and faceted crusts continued to remain weak and slow to heal.  These weak layers had been mainly lying dormant during the latest two-week dry period but should become more reactive with this latest load and slab formation.  It will most likely take you finding a shallow spot on the slope near a likely trigger point on the margins of the slab or near rock outcroppings to trigger a persistent slab avalanche or triggering a storm slab on the surface that then steps down into deeper weak layers.  These avalanches could be very large running well into the flats below and most likely not survivable.  

     

    Shallower snowpack <1.5m on a northwest aspect near treeline.  Weak layers closer to the ground have been slower to heal and continue to remain reactive in PSTs.  Near-surface faceting on the surface will become a problem with slabs developing on top of this layer from this storm.

    Photo: Andy Bond (2/23/2024)

Avalanche Discussion

The winds were cranking yesterday with W/SW winds in the 30 mph range gusting into the 60s.  Snowfall didn't start until last night with 1 to 4 inches so snow and 0-.3 - 0.5" of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE).   Measuring snow and water during windy storms like this is always a difficult task, so there is some uncertainty as to how much snow has already fallen. Today is going to bring blizzard-like conditions with continued strong winds that will increase and peak this afternoon with wind gusts approaching 80 mph.  An additional 6 to 8 inches of snowfall is forecasted throughout the day with the storm making its exit early this evening.  Although not avalanche related watch out for tree blowdowns today even if you're just going for a walk to Williams Lake.  

Newly formed slabs are resting on crusts and near-surface facets that formed during the close to two weeks of warm and dry weather that preceded this latest storm. Solar aspects of west, south, and east formed stout crusts on the surface. These crusts will provide a good bed surface for storm slabs to run on.  Below treeline and wind-sheltered northerly terrain had widespread near surface faceting that made for good skiing, but will now be a widespread easily collapsable weak layer.  Above treeline, strong winds last week created wind-pressed surfaces and breakable wind crusts.   

With each significant loading event this year, we've seen our persistent weak layers become more reactive and have had natural avalanches. We'll see how our deeper buried weak layers fare with this storm but if the forecast does verify and we pick up over an inch of water, I suspect we could see some natural avalanche activity with smaller avalanches stepping down into deeper weak layers.  Like the avalanches we saw during the last storm on Feb 7th these avalanches could break widely across slopes and fail on weak layers near the ground taking with it most of the season's snowpack. There is also some uncertainty with avalanche paths that have already slid this year.  Many avalanche paths have already slid once and in some cases twice (Peace Sign) this year.  These repeat offenders have a shallower and weaker snowpack and may struggle to handle this rapid loading with shallower buried weak layers.  

Today's going to bring blizzard-like conditions and travel is expected to be difficult with whiteout conditions. This can make route-finding and terrain management nearly impossible unless you're familiar with the area.  It's not a day to push things and let Mother Nature run its course.  Don't underestimate the blowdown potential if traveling below treeline and think about where you park and if a tree may come down on your vehicle. 

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