Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Wind drifted snow and heightened avalanche conditions remain a concern on west, south, and east aspects near and above treeline. Exercise caution near features that encourage drifting, and avoid steep leeward slopes to reduce your risk. A weather system entering the region this afternoon will lead to changing conditions and considerable avalanche danger by Thursday morning.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Over the last two days strong to extreme northerly winds have made use of their time transporting snow onto leeward west, south, and east aspects, predominantly above 9,000 feet. Recently formed wind slabs still pose a threat on leeward aspects below ridgelines, cliff bands, gullies, and convex rolls. Identify features of concern and observe for signs of instability to best manage this problem.

    Today, the northerly winds will diminish as the weather shifts to a southwest flow. Associated wind speeds look to remain light, with activity occurring predominant above treeline. However, this occurrence may result in the redistribution of snow onto south, east, and north aspects, furthering the sensitivity of said slabs. Pay attention to the direction the wind is blowing and use clues like scouring and cornice orientation to help identify areas of risk. 

    (2/26/2024)

    Snow drifting onto the leeward side of a ridgeline. Blowing snow, textured surfaces, and cornices are bulls eye clues of how you can identify and anticipate this problem.

    Photo: Eric Falconer

Avalanche Discussion

For all you early birds out there, be prepared for elevated avalanche danger first thing tomorrow morning. The storm will arrive this evening and accelerate through the early morning and daylight hours. Winds will crank from the southwest, with excessive snowfall. Wind slabs and storm slabs should be on your radar.  

The impending storm will be the largest loading event we've experienced in a while. Avalanche danger will stay elevated as the storm runs its course. A shift from northwest to southwest winds will surely leave south and east aspects cross-loaded. Extra caution should be applied to these aspects moving forward. 

As of recently, Mount Shasta has been raked by the wind at the mid and upper elevations, and almost all surfaces are firm or wind effected. Where surfaces have escaped the wind, primarily below treeline, a crust exists. In some places, this crust is thick and supportable, and in others, it's thin and fragile. There is uncertainty as to how these crusts will receive the new snow load, given their spatial variability. The best way to find out is by digging down and assessing for yourself. Recent observations have revealed no active interfaces or layers of concern within the snowpack, apart from the receiving surfaces the new snow will fall on.  

Cornices are reaching deadly large sizes and should be given extra space and respect when traveling among them. 

Access to Bunny Flat and Mount Shasta remains prolonged. Alternative options for winter recreation include McBride Springs, the Nordic Center, Mount Shasta Ski Park and Pilgrim /Deer Mountain OSV parks. Snow machines have been using the FS 31 road and power lines to access the Old Ski Bowl. Riders, know your boundaries, it's your responsibility. Please drive slow through local neighborhoods.

Regions covered