Avalanche Forecast

Poor - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

A series of storms is expected to continue to move across the interior mountain ranges from the coast. Moderate to heavy snowfall combined with strong Southwest winds is forecast overnight and into Thursday morning. Temperatures are forecast to rise dramatically on Thursday, as the freezing level approaches 2000 metres. Some moisture is expected to remain trapped in the Southeast as the cold arctic air descends from the North and cuts off the low pressure at the Rockies. This should mean more snow on Friday, and maybe even some snow on Saturday. The long range picture is mostly clear and cold with Northeast winds; our uncertainty centers on the timing of the change from stormy to cold and clear.

Observations have been extremely limited, although numerous size 1 storms slabs were observed in recent days in the Kootenay Pass area. Avalanche activity will likely increase in size and frequency with forecast wind, snow and rising freezing levels.

As we begin our forecasting season we are working with very limited field data. If you have been out in the mountains, please send us a note with your observations to [email protected] to 70cm of storm snow has fallen over the past week, and continual storms are contributing to ongoing surface instabilities within the new snow. The developing storm slab is adding load to weak crystals at the base of the snowpack which formed during the recent dry spell. These weak crystals, which include facets, surface hoar and possibly crusts, become more reactive at higher elevations and may persist for some time with the potential for large and destructive avalanches.The limited field data that we have received suggests that there is not enough snow below treeline for avalanche activity.If you are sending us information, we are interested in snow depths at different elevations (alpine, treeline, below treeline), spatial extent of the crust/facet weak layer, and new snow/ storm snow amounts.