Avalanche forecast

East Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

With warm temperatures expected again tomorrow, small wet avalanches may run on steep slopes in direct sun. Avalanche activity could vary greatly depending on aspect, elevation, and geographic location within the zone. So, using clues such as wet, heavy snow, or rollerballs will help you identify slopes more likely to slide. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Most wet avalanches will be confined to steep south aspects, particularly slopes with steep rocks and cliffs still holding snow. But it will take some time for surface crusts formed on Sunday night to break down before avalanches become possible on Monday. Watch for these crusts to break down and snow surfaces to become wet or rollerball activity to indicate an increasing potential for wet avalanche activity. We don't expect this problem to be widespread or the avalanches to be large, but with low snow cover or extreme terrain, it could be enough to ruin your season. You should also watch for chunks of snow sliding off steep rock faces overhead. The temperature profile throughout the zone will be complex, with inversion temperatures keeping colder air in the eastern valley bottoms and warmer temperatures at higher elevations and areas further west. This complex setup means it will be difficult to pinpoint precisely where there will be the highest likelihood of wet loose avalanches. Your best bet to avoid any issues is to use northern or shady slopes for sliding and riding. 

    (3/17/2024)

    Example of Wet loose avalanches of steep rocky terrain.

    Photo: Willie Webster

Avalanche Discussion

Expect another day of cold, cloudy skies to the east and increasing temperatures and sunshine as you climb west out of the valleys into the upper elevations. On Sunday, the top of the cold air pooled on the east slopes hung out between 5600 and 6400ft. Weather stations at Washington Pass recorded temperatures as high as 41°F at 6600ft while staying well below freezing at 5400ft. Temperatures were also significantly warmer west of Rainy Pass. 

On Saturday, I traveled on southerly slopes near Cutthroat Peak and found a thin sun crust topped with surface hoar. This crust tapered out above 6300ft. However, with Sunday's warm temperatures, I expect sun crusts to be much more prevalent in the upper elevations.  The snowpack was shallow but right-side up, with soft, weakening snow in the upper pack and consolidated snow in the mid and lower snowpack. There is plenty of wind-affected snow. While triggering a wind slab avalanche will be difficult, expect variable surfaces with wind crusts of different depths and hardnesses. 

Lower elevation snowpacks are still thin, and travel off roads or summer trails below 5000ft would be challenging. Snow depths near the Hairpin Valley at road level were 2-3ft.  But as you gain elevation, a deeper but variable snowpack exists.  I found snow depths from 3 to 5 feet (80-150+cm) above 6000ft on northerly terrain. Southerly aspects at similar elevations held a shallower snowpack between 2-3ft deep.  Many early-season obstacles, such as trees, rocks, logs, and creeks, are exposed or sometimes barely hidden underneath wind drifted surfaces. 

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