Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Heightened avalanche conditions will build through the day near and above treeline. Snow accumulation of 4–7 inches and strong southerly wind will generate wind slabs on leeward aspects, with particular emphasis near convex knolls, open slopes, gullies, and rock outcroppings. Human-triggered avalanches are possible. If heading into the backcountry, evaluate terrain carefully, keeping your eye out for red flags such as shooting cracks, collapsing under foot, and active wind loading.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    This problem will develop through the day as new snow begins to fall. Moderate-strong southerly wind (extreme above treeline) will transport any available soft snow onto leeward aspects, where a firm and frozen bed surface currently exists. The snow level will stay at 5,800 feet and above, keeping this problem focused to near and above treeline terrain. Expect to find wind slab development on NW-N-NE-E aspects, with cross loading possible on W and SE aspects. Additionally, due to the strong wind, loading can occur on less obvious terrain, mid-slope, and potentially lower elevations. These wind slabs could be reactive to trigger. By the end of the day, some of these slabs could be large enough to bury or kill you.

Avalanche Discussion

Here at Mount Shasta, the classic recipe for avalanches is wind and new snow. We're getting both of those ingredients today. With that, there is a bit of ambiguity with how much snow will actually fall and how strong the southerly wind will be. If the wind is extreme (>38 MPH), there might not be a ton of snow sticking to the firm surfaces out there. If the wind stays on the lighter side, wind slabs could develop quickly. The snow line appears to be around 5,800 feet for today, which will focus the danger on upper elevation slopes, but this could change. These factors will really define the actual danger. Peak instability will surely be this afternoon into the evening, where slabs have freshly developed and could be reactive to trigger. Approach avalanche terrain with caution, especially on leeward aspects where wind loading has occurred. Believe it or not, accidents often happen on days like this, where danger is moderate but some uncertainty exists. Wind slabs can form in sneaky places, and must be taken seriously. 

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