Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Large wet snow avalanches ran with the unseasonably warm temperatures we had Monday afternoon and Tuesday. A slight cooling trend begins early Wednesday, and it will become harder to trigger these avalanches as the day progresses. Slides could, however, become larger and more destructive if they step down to a buried weak layer we’re finding above a crust.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Small to large natural wet snow avalanches were spotted on Lichtenburg and in the Chiwaukums on Tuesday, and it was easy for a human to trigger a wet loose avalanche on slopes greater than 35 degrees. Temperatures begin cooling Tuesday night, and the likelihood for triggering wet loose avalanches will decrease. If the day starts with wet and sloppy snow, you might still be able to trigger a wet loose avalanche on steep slopes. If this is the case, steer around steep slopes until the snow sets up more. This will likely be the case by later in the day  As temperatures cool and wet snow avalanche concerns dissipate, there's a small chance that wet slab avalanches could still occur, as water percolates through the snowpack.  Pay attention to conditions as they evolve throughout the day, making note of how wet the snow is, and adjust your travel based on your findings.

    (3/22/2022) Large wet loose avalanches off the SE side of Lichtenberg. Photo: Matt Primomo

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–2.5

    Above 5,500ft on NW-NE aspects we’ve found weak, faceted grains over a crust from the 8th of March. This layer could be buried close to 3ft deep in some areas, and avalanches that fail on this layer would be large. The chances of a natural avalanche occurring during and at the end of the warm stretch are slightly elevated, and with the addition of wet loose avalanches or cornice fall as potential triggers, the potential for a failure at this weak layer is more possible. 

    This isn’t really a “manageable” avalanche problem that can be figured out. You are either in the terrain where one of these large, unsurvivable avalanches could occur, or you are not. If you choose to travel in these areas you are simply accepting a slightly higher risk of triggering or being exposed to a very large avalanche.

    (3/18/2022)

    Even at Mt Hood weaknesses near the March 8 crust were found. Here, a snowmobiler triggered a slab that failed on the March 8th facets at approximately 6800ft on an eastern aspect. 

    Photo: Andrew Kiefer

Avalanche Discussion

Wednesday we'll see some light rain midday, with snowlines hovering in the near treeline elevation band. The minimal amount we're getting shouldn't affect the danger much. We've had a lot of changing conditions in the last week, with reactive slab avalanches and dry snow problems, now transitioned to wet snow concerns. A number of small to large avalanches were both natural and human triggered lately, keeping us on our toes during these unsettled spring conditions. Snow will now transition from soggy and sticky, and eventually it will firm up and a surface crust is expected by Thursday.  Either way, travel conditions are challenging right now, so make sure you prepare for it before you head into the backcountry. 

Regions covered