Avalanche forecast

Eastside Region

Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Wind-driven snow continues to promote avalanche activity near and above the treeline. New snow and extreme winds will bring an increase in hazards throughout the day. Look for softer snow and safer riding in sheltered areas at lower elevations.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Yesterday, wind slab avalanches were reported on NE-facing slopes near and above the treeline. Expect the size and distribution of sensitive wind slabs to grow quickly this afternoon as precip rates increase. Extreme wind speeds this afternoon will likely build wind slabs in specific areas below the treeline as well. Wind slabs are commonly found on the leeward side of terrain features that block or re-direct winds. Terrain features of greatest concern are just below ridge lines and start zones of defined avalanche paths near and above treeline that collect wind-drifted snow.  Blowing snow, and textured, hollow or styrofoam-like surfaces are good indications that wind slabs are in your area. The hardness of wind-deposited snow means that wind slabs may be triggered from low on the slope or from areas you might consider "safe spots". Shooting cracks and small slabs releasing on test slopes may mean wind slabs are likely to react to human triggers. Even if these signs of instability are absent be wary of exposing yourself to steep open slopes with wind-deposited snow.

    A recent wind slab avalanche in a steep leeward terrain feature near treeline. 20230103.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    The likelihood of human-triggered persistent slab avalanches has decreased since the peak of the storm three days ago. However, a large cornice fall or wind slab avalanche could be enough to initiate a failure at the base of the snowpack causing a very large and destructive avalanche. This situation is most likely found in complex terrain near and above treeline where wind loading will continue to develop these potential triggers today. Keep in mind the bigger picture of patterns in natural avalanche activity and current weather red flags such as wind loading. These indicators point towards more conservative terrain choices.

    Crown lines on the east face of Punta Bardini. These were likely persistent slab avalanches that released mid storm on 1/1/23

Avalanche Discussion

In the short term, modest new snow totals and wind will be the main factors driving avalanche hazards today. There is uncertainty in the size and likelihood of new wind-slabs as we wait to see if the actual weather lines up with the forecast. Keeping track of snowfall during your tour will help you gauge how quickly hazard is rising. Keep in mind that the most likely areas for both avalanche problems overlap today and that the most likely trigger for a persistent slab is a wind slab avalanche.

With another heavy storm arriving plan tours that are within the limits of your experience and defer to more conservative options if you have doubts about your group's ability to manage conditions or terrain. Up to 2 feet of snow and 100 mph winds are expected in the next 48 hours. Avalanche danger will likely reach High tomorrow.

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