Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

The snowfall from today's storm is expected to largely miss Summit Lake. The main concern is fresh wind slabs 6-12" deep from the 20 to 30 mph southeast winds that will pick up this afternoon. The fresh wind slabs could cause natural avalanches or possibly be triggered by a person. Larger avalanches on buried weak layers are unlikely today but we recommend a conservative approach to high elevation start zones that are being actively loaded by wind transported snow. 

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

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Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Southeast winds averaging 20 to 30 mph are expected to pick up today as a storm system enters the area. Most of the snowfall looks like it will miss Summit Lake, so the main issue will be fresh wind slabs 6-12" deep at upper elevations. Even though the snow surface is already wind affected at upper elevations, strong winds can always find more snow to transport onto leeward slopes. To identify areas with wind slabs look for active wind loading, shooting cracks, and use small test slopes to check on the size and sensitivity of wind slabs before entering steeper terrain. 

    Glide avalanches and glide cracks have been observed across the region in the past two weeks. These are unpredictable and can cause very large and destructive avalanches, so we recommend avoiding spending time underneath open glide cracks. 

    Cornices have also grown very large at this point in the season and can fail naturally during periods of active wind loading. Try to avoid traveling underneath cornices while they are being loaded and give them a wide berth when traveling along ridgelines. 

    Wind-scoured to tundra on the ridge with wind loaded gullies on either side.

    Photo: Caleigh Warner

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    The relatively thin snowpack in Summit Lake is still harboring weak layers that could cause larger avalanches. Since it has been over two weeks since the last significant snowfall and the storm today is expected to largely miss Summit Lake, we think the chances of triggering an avalanche on a buried weak layer are very low. However, there was a recent observation of a collapse on Raven's Ridge and we are still seeing weak snowpack structure in our snowpits. These are good reminders to adopt a conservative approach to terrain selection in Summit Lake, especially on higher elevation start zones that are being actively loaded with wind transported snow. 

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