Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Heavy snow from the weekend formed thick slabs precariously above a weak snowpack.  The most concerning aspects are found on the north half of the compass and any slope recently drifted by westerly winds.  Since slabs are commonly 2 to 3 feet thick and deeper on wind-loaded terrain, expect avalanches to be dangerously large.  Winds drifting snow at upper elevations could produce a few natural avalanches today, so give a wide birth to steep slopes above you.  You can reduce the odds of triggering a dangerous avalanche by avoiding drifted features and choosing lower-angled terrain without steep slopes above on suspect aspects. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Exceptionally weak facets and collapsible crusts are widespread on the northern half of the compass and on some sunnier aspects at higher elevations.  Slabs on top of these weak layers are 2 to 3 feet thick and thicker on wind-loaded slopes. A triggered avalanche could propagate across multiple terrain features and step down into old layers near the ground. Given the thick slabs, don't expect obvious warning signs before an avalanche releases. These issues are less common on wind-sheltered, southerly aspects and can be avoided on slope angles consistently less than about 30 degrees that are not connected to steeper terrain above.   

    This is a waist-high crown of a large avalanche that was remotely triggered yesterday by a snowmobile in the Kebler Pass Area. 

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    An increase in wind on Monday transported snow at upper elevations and further stressed the snowpack.  Alpine winds averaged near 25 mph with gusts to 50 last night. The brunt of the loading is on the east side of the compass; however, you could find sensitive drifts in cross-loaded features on more windward aspects.  A triggered avalanche on drifted slopes could break in the upper snowpack, but there's a good chance that slides break deeper.  Carefully avoid any terrain with active loading or evidence of recent drifting.  Aspects and elevations that overlap with the Persistent Slab problem are the most dangerous due to the likelihood of avalanches 'stepping down' into deeper weak layers.     

    Dramatic evidence of wind loading on Whetstone Mountain from Monday.  Avoid terrain with signs of recent or active drifting.

    Photo: Zach Guy

Avalanche Discussion

The snowpack continues to teeter near failure on some slopes around the forecast area.  The recent storm cycle doubled the depth of snow on some terrain, a significant loading event by any measure.  The most likely places to trigger a dangerous avalanche are well-defined by previous weak layer formation and recent wind loading.  Slopes facing the compass's north half have a very poor snowpack structure.  The drought conditions in January and early February caused the snowpack to facet and weaken, and now those layers are buried by thick, cohesive slabs.  This observation from our Slate River corridor shows the nasty, fist-hard facets below a 3-foot slab, a classic strong over weak Persistent Slab setup.  Even though collapsing and cracking are infrequent, this poor snowpack structure demands your respect.  There is no shortage of recent natural or human-triggered avalanches to highlight current conditions' dangerous avalanche size and sensitivity.  The prudent choice would be to avoid avalanche terrain highlighted by the Persistent Slab distribution rose. 

The increase in wind on Monday has exacerbated the hazard by drifting snow at upper elevations.  This avalanche on Whetstone likely resulted from significant wind loading on Monday as it was not present on Sunday afternoon.  The threat of natural avalanches will continue as long as the wind drifts snow.  Even though most drifting occurred on the east half of the compass, you could encounter a thick, sensitive drift on more windward aspects from cross-loading.  The Wind Slab problem highlights the places most likely to find recent drifting, but not all the places.  Carefully read terrain, regardless of aspect, to identify and avoid recently drifted features.

The Storm Slab problem was removed from products today as wind-sheltered sunny slopes are not the most likely place to trigger an avalanche.  Recent snowpack tests suggest the inconsistencies in the storm snow have largely quieted down in sheltered terrain that lacks persistent weak layers.  Although less likely, it's not impossible to trigger an avalanche in the recent storm snow in a sheltered location.

 

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