Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist on wind-loaded slopes. Avalanches in the new snow could propagate into buried weak snow layers creating a persistent slab avalanche that is very large and likely unsurvivable. Avoid wind-loaded, rounded, pillowed, rippled, corniced, and slopes steeper than 30° near or above treeline.

Several small avalanches and point releases have been reported on northwest, north, northeast, and south aspects in the last 24 hours. For less avalanche hazard, seek protected slopes less than 30° degrees.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Strong southwest winds have created wind slabs on leeward slopes and terrain features. Winds are forecasted to continue for the next several days and will redistribute the snow. Anticipate wind slab avalanches to be likely for the foreseeable future with continued winds. Avoid wind-loaded, rounded, pillowed, rippled, or corniced slopes, as these may have new sensitive wind slabs.

    (2/25/2023)

    Wind rose of gust speed and direction since the evening of 2/23/23.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–3

    Several facet and crust combos were widely distributed near the surface a few days ago and have been buried by the new snow. In addition, the new snow may be enough to re-energize the dormant persistent weak layer of basal facets on north and northeast aspects. Human-triggered persistent slab avalanches are possible, and wind slab avalanches may have enough force to step down to these layers, creating propagating failures on these weak layers. If so, these avalanches may become very large.

    Before this week's storms, sun crusts were observed at mid-elevations across the mountain on slopes with moderate to high sun exposure (E, S, W). Finally, the basal facets and depth hoar have been documented on northerly and northeasterly slopes between 11,000' and 11,800.' These basal facets have become less reactive as they have been buried deeper with strong slabs above them, providing additional support; however, the large amount of new snow could reactivate this layer.

    The best way to manage the risk from persistent slab avalanches is to make conservative terrain choices and practice appropriate travel precautions. 

Avalanche Discussion

The last storm delivered 44" (112cm) of snow to the Arizona Snowbowl and 23"(58cm) at the SNOTEL site in Snowslide Canyon (9,700'). So far, several smaller (<D2) avalanches have been reported near and above treeline on northwest, north, and  northeast aspects. Additionally, a small point release was noted on a steep south aspect. These are all signs of instability and backcountry travelers should take caution and make conservative decisions when making tour plans and assessing terrain. Remember, we are just over 24 hours after a significant storm and wind event that has added stress to the snowpack in a very short period of time.

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