Avalanche forecast

Northwest Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Drifting snow will begin increasing the avalanche hazard today, and heavier snowfall tonight will cause more dangerous conditions to develop by tomorrow.  The safest riding is out of the wind today.  During daylight hours, expect fresh slab formation in leeward terrain features at higher elevations.  If we get more than about 6" or 8" of new snow, watch for small storm instabilities to develop in wind-sheltered terrain.  

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Transportable winds will shift from west to southwest through the day with fresh snow adding fuel for transport.  Shallow slabs of wind-drifted snow will form below ridges, in gullies, and below abrupt rollovers.   Watch for blowing snow and thicker/denser feeling snow on the surface to warn you of developing wind slabs.  This morning's relatively small wind slabs will be most harmful if they carry you into cliffs, trees, or gullies; they'll grow larger and more dangerous by tonight.  If snowfall exceeds the forecast, watch for small storm slabs to form in wind-sheltered terrain.  

Avalanche Discussion

An approaching storm will increase the avalanche hazard over the next 24 hours, driven by developing instabilities in the new and wind-drifted snow.  New instabilities will form first in wind-drifted terrain at higher elevations, where winds are blowing up 20 mph, gusting into the 50s.  With only a couple of inches of snow available for transport this morning, drifts will be relatively small.  As more snow accumulates through the day and overnight, slabs will become larger and more widespread.  Wind-sheltered terrain appears to stay below our thresholds for storm slab development through daylight hours.   Pay attention to new snow amounts in case the storm exceeds our weather forecast.  Expect to manage for shallow sluffing and isolated pockets of wind-drifted snow below treeline today.  Tomorrow's danger ratings hinge on how this storm performs, so stay tuned.

Deeply buried persistent weak layers are assessed to be unreactive in the Northwest Mountains and stubborn and isolated in the Southeast Mountains following the last few days of mild weather.   The problem has given sporadic and infrequent feedback in the past month in the Southeast Mountains. In the shallower parts of our forecast area, continue to use caution on wind-drifted slopes with variable depths.  Loading over the next 24 hours could increase the likelihood of the problem by tomorrow in the Southeast Mountains.    

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