Avalanche forecast

Blues

Wallowa Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Avalanche danger will start out low this morning,  but be aware of falling and sliding hazards on firm crusts.   Your chances of triggering small wet loose avalanches in steep terrain will increase this afternoon as direct sun and warming temperatures work to break down melt-freeze crusts on solar aspects.    Avoid solar aspects if the snow is becoming wet, sloppy, and unconsolidated.  Consider the consequences of triggering even a small avalanche above significant terrain traps such as cliff bands, creek beds, or gullies.  

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Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    High temperatures in the upper 30's to lower 40's combined with clear skies will work to break down the melt-freeze crusts that exist on East through South through West aspects.  As surface crusts break down, the snow becomes unconsolidated and loses cohesion.  Wet loose avalanches are most likely to start as "point releases" and fan out as the moving snow entrains more unconsolidated or saturated snow.   Likely places for wet loose avalanches to be triggered are on solar aspects steeper than 35 degrees- especially under or around cliff bands. 

    By the afternoon, be especially weary of aspects on the southern half of the compass.  Be on the lookout for rollerballs and pinwheels in terrain steeper than 30 degrees.  If you find wet and sloppy snow conditions where you are sinking up to your ankles, it's time to seek out shadier aspects and avoid steep terrain above terrain traps.  

    D1 Wet Loose Avalanche on East aspect (2024)

    Photo: Caleb Merrill

Avalanche Discussion

A Mixed Bag of Conditions

Yesterday in my travels in the Northern Wallowas, I found a mixture of surface conditions.  If your tour plan has you travelling over solar aspects in the morning, it is recommended to carry appropriate equipment for travel over slick and icy surfaces (boot and/or ski crampons and an ice axe). 

Take your pick: 

  • Solar aspects held 3-6" melt freeze crusts in the morning making for challenging skinning and teeth-chattering riding.  Most southerly aspects were softened to good-quality riding by 1:00.
  • Exposed terrain in the mid and upper elevation bands had wind-affected snow and lingering pockets of wind slabs. 
  • Settled dry snow exists on Northerly aspects at mid and upper elevations- where the terrain is protected from the wind.  (especially good on lower angled slopes) 

Is it hot in here? 

Things are heating up a bit going into the weekend.  Temperatures are forecasted to be in the upper 30's to low 40's   The sun is also hanging out just a bit longer and higher in the sky.  The effect that the sun has on the snow this time of year is significant.   As the day progresses, monitor how the temperatures and solar radiation are softening the melt-freeze crusts.   If you time it right, you can get some excellent riding.  If you are too late to the party, you might find yourself up to your ankles in a wet sloppy mess.  As the upper snowpack loses cohesion, it's time to seek shade and better riding on shadier slopes.

Cornices and lingering wind slabs

At upper elevation ridgelines, cornices have grown large and pockets of wind slabs may still linger.  Avoid wind loaded terrain.  Give cornices a wide berth and if you must look over the edge of the ridge, have a partner spot you from firm ground as they look up or down the ridgeline for additional cornices.  Check out the illustration below to see a diagram of where cornices usually fail and how they can be tricky to assess.  

Wait....what about those January Facets?  

Faceted, sugary, weak snow still sits 2-4 feet below the snow surface.  We continue to keep these on the radar, especially in the Blues and the Elkhorns.  In the past week, we continue to get mostly stable snowpack test results, but the outlier propagating result makes me think of the needle in the haystack scenario.  It's recommended to assess the snowpack structure on a slope scale before committing to complex or extreme terrain with consequences.  

So what?  Why are you still talking about this?   I think about facets in the snowpack as sleeping monsters in the basement.  What would wake them up?  In complex and unsupported terrain, it wouldn't be out of the question for a smaller wind slab or wet loose avalanche to add enough weight to trigger a larger persistent slab avalanche.  Warming and free water within the snowpack could also wake up the monster.   This weak layer should remain on our minds as we enter into warming temperatures through the weekend (especially if we don't get adequate overnight freezing temperatures)  If water percolates through the overlying slab and soaks these facets, wet slab avalanches could follow.  

Check out the video below. It's a little on the long side, but I talk about the structure of the snowpack in the Blues as well as some things to think about as we may be starting to think about bigger alpine objectives and the warming of our snowpack.  

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