Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

The stormy weather is expected to slowly taper off through the day, but avalanche conditions will remain dangerous. We will likely continue to see wet snow avalanches at and below treeline, with the potential for avalanches running into low-elevation runout zones. Upper elevations will likely see avalanches failing within new and windblown snow, and there is a chance that some of these may fail on deeper weak layers buried 1 to 4' deep. Conditions are dangerous and complex, and the best way to avoid getting in trouble will be to avoid traveling on or below steep terrain.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

We have published the final accident report for the March 22 avalanche fatality on Seattle Ridge at Turnagain Pass. It can be found here.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Recent Avalanches: Glide avalanches, wet loose, and wet slab avalanches have been releasing in Turnagain Pass, Girdwood Valley, Summit Lake, and near Lost Lake for the past week. Some have been very large running to valley bottoms. 

    The most intense part of this storm has likely passed, but we are expecting to see more snow and rain showers through the day today. We've seen rain up to at least 2600' in the past 24 hours, but should hopefully start to see that rain line drop today and tonight. After a day and a half of this warm and wet weather, which was preceded by almost a week of above-freezing temperatures, conditions are ripe for wet snow avalanches. We've seen natural wet slab, wet loose, and glide avalanches all week, and will likely see more today. This activity will probably ease off as temperatures cool during the the day, but wet snow avalanches are tricky to predict. 

    Be on the lookout for wet snow avalanches on all aspects today, especially before the storm starts to taper off. These may be happening naturally and have the potential to run into lower elevation runout zones even where there is currently bare ground. Be aware of overhead hazard as you travel, and limit spending time below steep terrain.

    Storm totals below are from 12 AM Friday morning through 6 am this morning:

    • Portage: 6.6" Snow Water Equivalent (SWE), equaling 4 to 6' snow above treeline.
    • Girdwood: 2.0" SWE equaling 1.5 to 2' snow.
    • Turnagain Pass: 1.3" SWE equaling 1' snow.
    • Summit Lake: 0.2" SWE equaling 1-2" snow.
    • Seward/Lost Lake: 1.1" SWE equaling 10-12" snow.

    Cornice Fall: These last few days of wet and windy weather will be pushing cornices to their breaking point. These may fail naturally, and they may trigger larger avalanches when they land on a slope. Avoid spending time below cornices, and give them plenty of room if you are traveling along ridgelines.

    (4/5/2025)

    Fresh glide avalanche on Pyramid seen yesterday morning.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    This weekend's storm has added stress to the weak layer of buried surface hoar that has been a concern since mid-February. This layer is now 2 to 4' deep at upper elevations, and 1 to 2' deep below 2500'. We have just added a lot of liquid water to the snowpack below 2500', which is adding weight above this weak layer at the same time it is melting bonds within the weak layer, making it even weaker. At upper elevations the new and windblown snow is stacking up and adding stress. Either way, the likelihood of triggering an avalanche on this weak layer of snow has increased over the past two days. 

    This problem has been a real challenge to assess. We can bet the conditions will remain dangerous as the active weather continues, and recommend avoiding traveling on or below steep terrain while the snowpack adjusts to this new load.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    New snow and strong winds will continue to build storm and wind slabs at upper elevations. These will likely be up to 2' deep or deeper above 2500', and will likely remain reactive today as the storm tapers off. If the wet snow and persistent weak layer concerns are not enough reason to avoid steep terrian for now, these new snow concerns should be one more reason to avoid steep terrain today. This problem should heal quicker than the persistent problem mentioned above, but with active weather expected to continue into the beginning of the week, we should expect to see dangerous avalanche conditions for the next few days.

    (4/6/2025)

    Predictied liquid precipitation totals for the next 24 hours. This will fall as mostly rain below 1500'.

    Photo: NWS- Anchorage

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