Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The snowpack is fairly locked up, and large avalanches are unlikely. But remember that low avalanche danger still has some danger. 

We are in a warming trend that may produce wet snow instabilities. If you see rollerballs or find more than several inches of wet, sticky snow, retreat to shadier slopes or move off steep avalanche-prone slopes. Warm weather will destabilize large cornices that have formed on some hard-to-reach ridgelines. 

Crampons and ice tools will help travelers on steep and hard/icy snow near and above treeline. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Wet loose avalanches often originate on sun-exposed slopes, especially near solar-absorbing rock outcrops. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps and cliffs. Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under steep, sunny slopes in the afternoon. Monitor the snowpack surface, and move to colder, shadier slopes once the slush layers become more than ~6" deep. 

    These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the snowpack's surface, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like loose dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers. 

    (4/2/2023) 

    During the brief warm-up last weekend, small loose wet avalanches were observed on an easterly aspect of Rustler Peak/Humphreys Cirque area. 

    Photo: Rory T. Goforth

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Rapid warming and meltwater added to the snowpack may reactivate weak layers that were responsible for large (D2) natural slab avalanches on E-SE slopes in the last two weeks. There is only a slim possibility for wet slab avalanches today. The likelihood of wet slab avalanches will increase tomorrow as temperatures increase.

    Wet slabs can be very destructive but difficult to predict. Avoid terrain where and when you suspect wet slab avalanche activity. Give yourself a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty.

    (4/2/2023)

    Below treeline cornice near 9000', between Mt. Elden and Sunset Trail Area.  Avoid standing on, or being below cornices like these. Warm weather will make these features unstable. Collapsing cornices may trigger destructive web slab avalanches. 

    Photo: Troy Marino

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