Avalanche forecast

Central Cascades

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

As rain soaks the snow, large human triggered avalanches will be possible on all elevations and aspects. With rain and warming temps, wet slab and wet loose avalanches will be possible. Wind slabs will also be possible on lee aspects near and above treeline. If/when you see signs of instabilities on Sunday, move to lower angle terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2.5

    With a significant warming/rain event on dry snow, large wet slabs will be possible. We currently have a lot of snow in the mountains from a series of storms. As rain falls, water can percolate to a storm layer interface and cause a failure. Rain will also add significant load to our deep snowpack.

    With this event, it is possible to see large wet slab avalanches on all elevations and aspects. When traveling in the backcountry, monitor snow saturation depth and look for free water percolating deeper into the snowpack. As the day warms up and rain continues to fall, it is best to avoid being on avalanche terrain and under these slopes.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    As rain begins to falls, the possibility for wet loose avalanche activity will increase. Avalanche size will be dependent on the depth the rain/melting snow saturates the snowpack. Steep terrain and unsupported slopes will be an easier location to trigger a wet loose avalanche. As the day continues and more rain falls, the possibility of avalanche activity will also increase. Look for signs of instabilities such as roller balls/pin wheels. 

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    On Saturday, I observed a human triggered wind slab (D1) in the alpine on a NE aspect around 8,000ft. I also triggered a few very small wind slabs on indicator slopes, and I saw significant wind loading at ridge tops throughout the day.

    With new snow this past week and moderate winds, I would continue to keep wind slabs on your radar near and above treeline.  Although these slabs will not be everywhere, I would continue to monitor for wind slabs below ridgelines, areas that catch snow, and locations where snow can freely move/accumulate (like burn areas). Look for signs of slab formation such as pillow-like features and textured snow surface. If you see any signs of instability (such as cracking or recent avalanches) stick to slopes below 30 degrees. 

Avalanche Discussion

We currently have some very large cornices near and above treeline on northerly to easterly aspects. As Sunday warms and rain falls, this will significantly weaken any cornices. It is best to avoid being under these and give corncies a wide berth. Remember that corncies can break farther back than expected. 

Regions covered